美國科羅拉多州立大學的颶風預測團隊表示,美國大西洋海灣地區即將於6月1日開始進入颶風活躍期,但與2005年同期相較,將和緩許多。
氣象學者葛瑞(William Gray)與克洛茲巴哈(Phil Klotzbach)預計6-9月將有17個被命名的暴風雨會出現在大西洋海灣地區,其中9個將形成颶風,且這9個颶風當中有5個將會形成強烈颶風,依照薩非爾/辛普森颶風量級表(the Saffir/Simpson scale),級別為3到5級不等,而這5個強烈颶風的風速將達到每小時111英哩,甚至更高。
克洛茲巴哈表示,「颶風活躍的季節將至,但應較2004年與2005年來的和緩。根據我們最新的預測報告顯示,強烈颶風登陸美國沿岸的機率約74%,比上個世紀的平均值52%來的高。」
此一團隊預測的依據是以全球海洋與大氣狀況為前提,例如聖嬰現象、海表面溫度以及海平面氣壓等,這些現象在過去颶風活躍與否的季節裡,其狀況對於未來類似的趨勢提供了極有意義的資訊。
A very active hurricane season is in store for the U.S. Atlantic Basin starting June 1, but not as active as the 2005 season, according to a team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University.
Meteorologists William Gray and Phil Klotzbach anticipate 17 named storms in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 30, of which nine will become hurricanes. Of those nine, the team predicts that five will develop into intense or major hurricanes - rated category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale - with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
"We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons," said Klotzbach. "Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 74 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent."
The team's forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.