2050零碳轉型不賠錢還能省12兆美元? 牛津研究揭櫫「快」秘笈 | 環境資訊中心
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2050零碳轉型不賠錢還能省12兆美元? 牛津研究揭櫫「快」秘笈

2022年09月19日
環境資訊中心外電;姜唯 翻譯;許祖菱 審校;稿源:ENS

牛津大學研究人員13日在《焦耳》(Joule)期刊發表最新研究。報告指出,跟維持現今的化石燃料使用方式相比,如能在2050年完成能源去碳化(decarbonization),預估可為全世界省下12兆美元。

該研究展示了一個快速轉型到潔淨能源的情境,還能達成三贏 —— 能源成本低於化石燃料、為全球經濟提供更多能源、讓更多人享用能源。

紐約拉瓜迪亞機場停車場屋頂的太陽光電。由超過 3,500 塊太陽能板組成,每年可產生超過 170 萬度的綠能。圖片來源:紐約和紐澤西港務局 via ENS

紐約拉瓜迪亞機場停車場屋頂的太陽光電。由超過 3,500 塊太陽能板組成,每年可產生超過 170 萬度的綠能。圖片來源:紐約和紐澤西港務局 via ENS

該研究以「快速轉型」(Fast Transition)情境來展示2050年前轉型到零化石燃料的可行路徑,透過加速利用太陽能、風能、儲能電池、電動車、綠氫等潔淨能源,讓全球能源服務提升55%。

該研究的主要作者、牛津大學史密斯企業與環境學院(SSEE)博士後研究員韋(Rupert Way)表示,「過去的模型都預期零碳轉型需要花大筆金錢,因而阻礙了企業的投資意願。政府在推動能源轉型與減少使用化石燃料時也游移不決。然而,潔淨能源成本在過去十年快速下降,遠比這些模型的估計快得多。」

他解釋,「我們的最新研究顯示,隨著關鍵綠色技術的規模不斷上升,成本會跟著再下降。轉型的速度愈快,就省愈多。所以說,加速再生能源轉型,不僅是對地球的最佳選擇,就能源成本來說,也是最佳選擇。」

作者寫道,「快速轉型」會讓舊能源系統被快速取代,但未必會產生過多擱置資產(stranded capital)(編註:擱置資產指因市場形勢變化而失去應有價值的資產。在淘汰化石能源時,原先對化石能源的投資很可能變成擱置資產)。

報告寫道,「大型能源基礎建設的耐用年限通常是25至50年,相當於每年折舊2%到4%。而我們所有的模擬情境顯示,能源需求會以每年2%的速度增長。綜合上述兩點可見,讓關鍵綠能科技在20年內取代大部分的既有能源系統,並用幾十年時間去取代剩餘的5%,如此一來,原有的投資未必會變成擱置成本。」報告中寫道。

研究人員發現,即使跟過去最積極的預測相比,太陽能的實際成本下降速度仍是預估的兩倍。這代表,過去20年的模型都高估了關鍵綠能技術的成本。

「大眾對能源轉型有一個很普遍的迷思,認為能源轉型會很痛苦、很花錢,我們必須為此付出代價,但這是錯的。」研究團隊主持人、牛津馬丁學院新經濟思維研究所(Institute for New Economic Thinking)教授法默(Doyne Farmer)說。

「幾十年來,再生能源成本一直呈現下降趨勢,在許多情境下,再生能源已經比化石燃料便宜。我們的研究顯示,在未來幾年絕大多數的應用中,再生能源將比化石燃料更加便宜。而且,當能源轉型的腳步更快,價格就會降更快。若能在2050年前完全以潔淨取代化石燃料,將可省下數兆美元。」法默說。

研究也顯示,電池和電解產氫等關鍵電力儲存技術的成本都可能大幅下降。

同時,核電的成本在過去50年間一直在增加,這使它難以與成本大幅下降的再生能源和儲能競爭。

Global Net Zero Carbon Energy by 2050 Possible, Profitable
OXFORD, UK, September 13, 2022 (ENS)

Transitioning to a decarbonized energy system by around 2050 is expected to save the world at least US$12 trillion (£10.4 trillion), compared to continuing the current levels of fossil fuel use, according to a peer-reviewed study by Oxford University researchers, published in the journal “Joule” today.

The research shows a win-win-win scenario, in which rapidly transitioning to clean energy results in lower energy system costs than a fossil fuel system, while providing more energy to the global economy, and expanding energy access to more people around the world.

The study presents a “Fast Transition” scenario showing a realistic possible future for a fossil-free energy system by around 2050. It provides 55 percent more energy services globally than we have today by ramping up solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles, and clean fuels such as green hydrogen made from renewable electricity.

Lead author Dr. Rupert Way, postdoctoral researcher at Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, says, “Past models, predicting high costs for transitioning to zero carbon energy, have deterred companies from investing, and made governments nervous about setting policies that will accelerate the energy transition and cut reliance on fossil fuels. But clean energy costs have fallen sharply over the last decade, much faster than those models expected.”

“Our latest research shows scaling up key green technologies will continue to drive their costs down – and the faster we go, the more we will save. Accelerating the transition to renewable energy is now the best bet not just for the planet, but for energy costs too,” Dr. Way explained.

“Although the Fast Transition happens quickly, it is still possible to replace the energy system without excessive stranding of capital,” the authors write.

“Lifetimes of large energy infrastructure projects typically range from 25 to 50 years, meaning that on average about two to four percent of capacity needs replacing in any given year. In addition, useful energy demand grows at two percent per year in all our scenarios. These two factors make it possible for key green technologies to replace most of the existing energy system in 20 years, and replace the remaining five percent within a few decades more, without necessarily stranding assets before their economic lifetimes,” they write.

They found the real cost of solar energy dropped twice as fast as the most ambitious projections in these models, revealing that, over the last 20 years, previous models overestimated the future costs of key clean energy technologies versus reality.

“There is a pervasive misconception that switching to clean, green energy will be painful, costly and mean sacrifices for us all – but that’s just wrong,” says Professor Doyne Farmer, who leads the team that conducted the study at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School.

“Renewable costs have been trending down for decades. They are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations and, our research shows, they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications in the years to come. And, if we accelerate the transition, they will become cheaper faster. Completely replacing fossil fuels with clean energy by 2050 will save us trillions,” Farmer said.

The study showed the costs for key storage technologies, such as batteries and hydrogen electrolysis, are also likely to fall dramatically.

Meanwhile, the costs of nuclear power have consistently increased over the last five decades, making it highly unlikely to be cost competitive with plunging renewable and storage costs.

※ 全文及圖片詳見:ENS

作者

姜唯

如果有一件事是重要的,如果能為孩子實現一個願望,那就是人類與大自然和諧共存。

許祖菱

大學就讀傳播學系,現在是文字/影像/翻譯工作者。