地球日三十歲了

作者 Donella H. Meadows

　　如果（人們）說，經過了從1970年以來的30個地球日慶典中，人類與經濟活動對於地球有多一點的尊重的話，地球她自己可一點也不覺得有什麼差異。

　　地球不會為華麗空想的演說而感動。李奧那多迪卡皮歐(Leonardo DiCaprio)訪問柯林頓對全球暖化的看法，也不是件能驚天動地的事。地球不會刻意要（人類去）證明他們的良善意圖、未來的計畫或高尚渴望。地球甚至不會在意錢，因為從地球的觀點來看，錢不過是一種人類發明的神奇玩意兒。星球們只衡量實際存在的事 - 能量和物質，以及能量在消長的生物族群中的進出轉換。

 　　地球所看得到的，乃是在1970年的第一個地球日那天，有三十七億個自稱為人類的過動生物，而現在這種生物（居然）超過六十億個。回溯到1970年，那些人類每天從地表岩質層中抽出四千六百萬桶石油 - 而現在他們每天抽出七千八百萬桶。

　　天然氣的抽取在三十年內幾乎增加三倍，從年產量三千四百萬立方英呎到九千五百萬立方英呎。我們在1970年挖出22億公噸的煤，今年，我們會挖出約38億公噸。

　　這個行星體認到石化燃料用途很廣，燃料被挖出(的同時被外洩)、被運送(的同時也被外洩)、被精鍊(的同時又產生毒素)、最後被燃燒成難以計數的污染物質，包括二氧化碳，而二氧化碳 吸收原本該從大氣層放出長波輻射，造成溫室效應。僅管有全球性的會議與華麗的承諾，地球注意到的卻是人類的碳排放量已從1970年的3千9百萬公噸提高到成今年的6千4百萬公噸。

　　你可能認為像地球這樣大得難以想像的星球不會在意現在的溫度比1970年高出華式一度。但以整個星球的尺度而言，一度卻是件大事，特別是這一度並沒有全球地平均分配。南北極的溫度上升得比赤道區多，冬天的溫度上升得比夏天多，夜晚上升得比白日多。這是說各地之間的氣溫差距變化比全球平均氣溫的改變還多。氣溫的改變是造成風的對流、降雨與洋流的原因。

　　所有的生物，包含人類，能夠敏銳地隨氣候調節。所有的生物，包括我們，都注意到氣候的詭譎變化，並藉由搬家/遷移、提早結果或延後遷徙，藉由強化抗洪耐旱的法寶，以試圖適應氣候。地球本身也對氣候改變做出反應，冰河的縮減，從南極冰層中溶出國家般大的厚冰山，促成我們所稱的聖嬰「尼諾(El Nino)」或「尼娜(La Nina)」循環。

　　「地球日，實際上是"欺騙地球日"(Sham-Earth Day)，」當地球的氣溫上升時，她自己也一定想弄明白:「你們這些人會認真地對待我嗎?」

　　從第一個地球日起，地球上的車輛從二億四千六百萬膨脹到七億三千萬。空中交通成長六倍。我們搗磨樹木來造紙的速率增加一倍(成為每年2000萬公噸)。利用人工添加的外來化學物質，我們詐欺了土壤，小麥產量是三十年前的2.25倍、糖幾乎是2倍、大豆近4倍，而我們從海洋中撈補的魚幾乎是從前魚貨量的2倍。

 　　藉著魚類資源枯竭的例子，使得我們明白如果把地球推向極限，地球會有什麼反應。她不會同情我們，而照她自己的自然法則來。魚越來越難抓了。如果在牠們長得夠大足以繁衍之前就被抓走，或是如果他們的生育地遭受破壞，如果我們不是只大量捕獲鱈魚，又撈捕鱈魚的食物毛鱗魚(capelin)的時候，魚群就再也不會回來了。地球才不在乎我們不在意她，雖然我們一再地承諾要改變，即使我們在每年的地球日上都擺出善意的姿態。

　　我們之中有些死忠的樂觀主義者，譴責我為何從去年的地球日起，就不再報導好消息。好消息是有很多，但大部份都是人類眼中的好消息，而不是地球的。人類平均壽命已從1970年的58歲提高到現在的66歲。世界總生產量增加超過兩倍，從16兆到現在的39兆。資源回收量是加大了，但垃圾量也更增多。地球目前接收比有史以來更多的垃圾。風力與太陽能發電正高度發展中，但是燃燒煤礦、天然氣與核能發電的亦然。

　　就人類的角度來看，人類的進步令人屏息吃驚。在1970年代，還沒有行動電話或錄放影機，沒有網際網路，沒有 ".com(s)" （以網路族為其主要行銷市場的公司），沒有人感染AIDS，當然，也沒有人會擔憂基因工程。全球花在廣告上的錢是現在的三分之一（已計入通貨膨脹）。第三世界國家的負債只有現在的八分之一。

　　無論你多麼看重這些進步，地球都不會在意。地球看到的是它的生物們正以六千五百萬年以來不曾見過的速率在消失，（地球上）百分之四十的農耕土壤已衰竭，有半數的森林消失，有半數的濕地已被填平或乾枯。即使在地球日那一天，這些驅勢一樣在加速進行。

　　地球日讓我開始想到母親節，那是個被商業化節日。因為在每年的那一天，你都會買花送給那個除了母親節之外的每一天都跟在你後面幫你收爛攤子的她。我們現在做一些瑣事來減輕罪惡感，想要（對母親和地球的傷害）大事化小，小事化無，但實際上卻很危險。因為所有母親的忍耐都是有限度的。我們的地球母親絕不會因此 （這裡指出前面所述人類只說不做的態度）而以耐心地、寬容地、好心地態度來軟化她的讓環境枯竭的決心。

　　Donella H. Meadows 是永續協會(Sustainability Institute)的理事，也是達特茅斯學院(Dartmouth College)環境研究的助教授。

原文詳見 : http://www.gristmagazine.com/grist/citizen/citizen042200.stm

版權歸屬 Earth Day Network，環境信託協會 (謝洵怡　譯，陳維立審校)

by Donella H. Meadows 

If, in the 30 Earth Day celebrations we have held since 1970, the human population and economy have become any more respectful of the Earth, the Earth hasn't noticed.

The planet is not impressed by fancy speeches. Leonardo DiCaprio interviewing Bill Clinton about global warming is not an Earth-shaking event. The Earth has no way of register good intentions or future inventions or high hopes. It doesn't even pay attention to dollars, which are, from a planet's point of view, just a charming human invention. Planets measure only physical things -- energy and materials and their flows into and out of the changing populations of living creatures.

What the Earth sees is that on the first Earth Day in 1970 there were 3.7 billion of those hyperactive critters called humans, and now there are over six billion. Back in 1970, those humans drew from the Earth's crust 46 million barrels of oil every day -- now they draw 78 million.

Natural gas extraction has nearly tripled in 30 years, from 34 trillion cubic feet per year to 95 trillion. We mined 2.2 billion metric tons of coal in 1970; this year, we'll mine about 3.8 billion.

The planet feels this fossil fuel use in many ways, as the fuels are extracted (and spilled) and shipped (and spilled) and refined (generating toxics) and burned into numerous pollutants, including carbon dioxide, which traps outgoing energy and warms things up. Despite global conferences and brave promises, what the Earth notices is that human carbon emissions have increased from 3.9 million metric tons in 1970 to an estimated 6.4 million this year.

You would think that an unimaginably huge thing like a planet would not notice the 1 degree Fahrenheit warming it has experienced since 1970. But on the scale of a whole planet, 1 degree is a big deal, especially since it is not spread evenly. The poles have warmed more than the equator, the winters more than the summers, the nights more than the days. That means that temperature differences from one place to another have been changing much more than the average temperature has changed. Temperature differences are what make winds blow, rains rain, ocean currents flow.

All creatures, including humans, are exquisitely attuned to the weather. All creatures, including us, are noticing weather weirdness and trying to adjust, by moving, by fruiting earlier or migrating later, by building up whatever protections are possible against flood and drought. The Earth is reacting to weather changes, too, shrinking glaciers, splitting off nation-sized chunks of Antarctic ice sheet, enhancing the cycles we call El Nino and La Nina.

"Earth Day, Shmearth Day," the planet must be thinking as its fever mounts. "Are you folks ever going to take me seriously?"

Since the first Earth Day, our global vehicle population has swelled from 246 million to 730 million. Air traffic has gone up by a factor of six. The rate at which we grind up trees to make paper has doubled (to 200 million metric tons per year). We coax from the soil, with the help of strange chemicals, 2.25 times as much wheat, 2.5 times as much corn, 2.2 times as much rice, almost twice as much sugar, and almost four times as many soybeans as we did 30 years ago. We pull from the oceans almost twice as much fish.

With the fish, we can see clearly how the planet behaves, when we push it too far. It does not feel sorry for us; it just follows its own rules. Fish become harder and harder to find. If they are caught before they're old enough to reproduce, if their nursery habitat is destroyed, if we scoop up not only the cod, but the capelin upon which the cod feeds, the fish may never come back. The Earth does not care that we didn't mean it, that we promise not to do it again, that we make nice gestures every Earth Day.

We have among us die-hard optimists who will berate me for not reporting the good news since the last Earth Day. There is plenty of it, but it is mostly measured in human terms, not Earth terms. Average human life expectancy has risen since 1970 from 58 to 66 years. Gross world product has more than doubled, from 16 to 39 trillion dollars. Recycling has increased, but so has trash generation. The Earth receives more garbage than ever before. Wind and solar power generation have soared, but so have coal-fired, gas-fired, and nuclear power generation.I

n human terms, there has been breathtaking progress. In 1970, there weren't any cell phones or video players. There was no Internet; there were no dot-coms. Nor was anyone infected with AIDS, of course, nor did we have to worry about genetic engineering. Global spending on advertising was only one-third of what it is now (in inflation-corrected dollars). Third-World debt was one-eighth of what it is now.

Whether you call any of that progress, it is all beneath the notice of the Earth. What the Earth sees is that its species are vanishing at a rate it hasn't seen in 65 million years. That 40 percent of its agricultural soils have been degraded. That half its forests have disappeared and half its wetlands have been filled or drained, and that, despite Earth Day, all these trends are accelerating.

Earth Day is beginning to remind me of Mother's Day, a commercial occasion upon which you buy flowers for the person who, every other day of the year, cleans up after you. Guilt-assuaging. Trivializing. Actually dangerous. All mothers have their breaking points. Mother Earth does not soften hers with patience or forgiveness or sentimentality.

Donella H. Meadows is director of the Sustainability Institute and an adjunct professor of environmental studies at Dartmouth College.
http://www.gristmagazine.com/grist/citizen/citizen042200.stm