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作者 Patrick Mazza 03.23.00
對於急速發展的無污染能源工業，現在正是一個充滿機會的時間點。經過多年的艱難掙扎，無污染工業現在已羽翼漸豐，開始要展翅飛翔了。風力與太陽能是現在發展最快速的能源來源，它們的成本正急速地降低到與石油的價格相較看齊。同時，用於建築物以及新一代汽車的無污染燃料電池也即將普遍問市。
照片:打鐵趁熱(諺語)
結合公營與私營企業，開始前瞻性的行動，將使無污染能源迎頭趕上。蜆殼(Shell)石油公司的企劃人員預期，可更新資源在2020年以前將有潛力與石油價格相較，並在2050年之前生產超過半數的地球能源。
美國柯林頓總統最近說:「我相信能源工業革命即將來臨，它將使我們有能力轉變地球暖化現象 。我只希望它來得及發生以避免極區冰山頂的融化或一些其他災害性事件。」
時間是必要的。總統的科學顧問John Holdren提到，如果目前在籌備階段的發電場現今成立了,那麼在2050年時它們將仍然會持續運作。 他說: 「在進入未來使用持久性能源的時代，我們幾乎已沒有足夠的緩衝時間。」
1990年代是這1000年以來最溫暖的十年，1998年則是在這十年中最熱的一年，而現在1999年即將成為這塊土地所有記錄上第二熱的一年. 較於任何自美國政府開始有溫度記錄以來的冬天,今年美國的冬天有著最高平均溫度。
近來氣溫增加的實際證據已影響了英美氣溫量測機構的領導高層，打破了過去任何科學上的沈默保留態度，清楚地將地球暖化現象與人類行為的關係連結。
美國國家海洋與大氣管理處的處長James Baker 跟英國氣象所所長Peter Ewins 在1999年十二月指出:「我們的氣溫現在正在急速變化中…..我們現今新的資料與了解皆指出一個危急的狀況…..忽視地球暖化現象對我們與後代而言將意味很高的成本代價。」
Ewins 繼續說:「我們摒棄過去質疑的態度，而相信依現有的實證，人類之於氣候的影響是無庸置疑的。所以我們必須要有相對的因應行動。」
當氣候科學家們接二連三發表如此的看法後，即便是世界經濟研討會一個類似的討論，也產生一個衝擊性的結論。上百名世界頂尖的商業與政治領袖聚集於2000年一月在瑞士Davos的年會時，他們票選出氣溫變化將為世界上最艱鉅的難題。
(照片:風吹動的方向/方法)
由11個科學家所組成的團體在1998年十月的Nature雜誌上，發表了他們的研究。強調防止地球因暖化現象所帶來的大災禍將不會只是一個簡單任務。他們計算僅是維持二氧化碳(CO2)─造成溫室效應的主要原兇－ 目前在大氣中的濃度，在２０１８年以前，我們必須生產十兆瓦的非石油能源- 這相當於現今全球三分之二的能源生產。如果我們直到2035年才能有這樣多的無碳能源產能，二氧化碳將會是今日程度的兩倍。
Martin Hoffert 與他的研究伙伴另外點出了:「市場的無效率也許妨礙了無污染能源技術在效益及時限上的發展需求。
在過去的那一個世紀裡，戰時與戰後的研究促進了商用飛機 、雷達 、電腦晶片 、 雷射， 及網路等發展。」想要將氣溫穩定下來可能需要猛力的政策，「必須要有曼哈頓工程或阿波羅太空計劃那樣的迫切進行。」
雖然這任務是如此重大，無污染能源革命來的正是時候，它或許將提供真正解決氣候問題的有效方法，另也可能帶來碩大的經濟商機。能源由無污染的來源獲得，如數百萬的太陽能、風力、水力據點，全部由資訊科技聯結及管理，維持在生產與消耗之間有著最大的效能──這將是未來新興能源網的一個景象。它代表了自愛迪生一世紀以前設立第一個發電場以來最重大的能源改革。它將如同網際網路的跨時代性，而且在許多方面也將與網際網路相依連。
我們正站在進入無污染能源革命的關口。它是否能足夠迅速穩定目前的氣候問題，將是一個全球性的迫切議題，也與未來發展有著長期不可抹煞的牽連。需要有勇氣的企業家，有遠見的商業領袖，跟公眾的領導者，不只在中央政府的層次，也擴及區域政府及城市，共同邁向保護地球的行列，在同時把握住隨伴而來且顯而易見的巨大經濟潛力。
Patrick Mazza是一位職業作家跟Climate Solutions的研究員。這篇文章是自Climate Solutions 即將發表的報告「促進無污染能源革命: 西北如何成為先驅。」
原文與圖片詳見：http://www.gristmagazine.com/
grist/imho/imho032300.stm
版權歸屬 Earth Day Network，環境信託協會 （徐怡德 譯，陳慧如審校）
中英對照全文詳見：http://news.ngo.org.tw/issue/
energy/sub-energy00052301.htm
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by Patrick Mazza
03.23.00
For the burgeoning clean energy industry, these are heady times. Having spent most of its years in uphill struggle, the industry has now climbed to the takeoff point. Wind and solar are the world's fastest growing energy sources, their costs rapidly curving down toward competitiveness with fossil fuels. Fuel cells that provide clean electricity for buildings and new-generation vehicles are nearing the market.
Making hay while the sun shines.Photo: NREL/PIX.
With the right mix of public and private initiatives, clean energy could ramp up rapidly. Shell Oil planners see renewables potentially becoming cost-competitive with fossil fuels by 2020 and producing more than half the planet's energy by 2050.
"I believe there will be a complete revolution in energy technology, which will enable us to turn around global warming," President Clinton recently said. "I just hope it happens in time to avoid melting the polar ice cap, or some other disastrous thing."
Time is of the essence. Presidential science advisor John Holdren notes that if power plants on the drawing boards now are constructed, they will still be in operation in 2050. "We are running out of time for a smooth transition to a sustainable energy future," he says.
The 1990s were the warmest decade in at least 1,000 years, and 1998 was the hottest of those years. Now 1999 is going down in the books as the second-warmest year on land, and this past winter in the U.S. had the highest average temperature of any winter since the government began keeping records.
The growing body of evidence for climate change recently spurred the heads of the top climate monitoring organizations in the United States and Britain to break with any past scientific reticence and clearly connect global warming with human activities.
"Our climate is now changing rapidly ... Our new data and understanding now point to a critical situation," said U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief James Baker and U.K. Meteorological Office head Peter Ewins in December 1999. "Ignoring climate change will surely be the most costly of all possible choices, for us and our children.''
"We're now coming clean and saying we believe the evidence is almost incontrovertible, that man has an effect and therefore we need to act accordingly,'' Ewins added.
While climate scientists have been moving toward that conclusion for some time, a similar finding by the World Economic Forum came as a shock. Hundreds of the world's very top business and political leaders convening at the group's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2000 selected climate change as the world's most challenging problem.
The way the wind blows.Photo: NREL/PIX.
A study by a group of 11 scientists published in Nature in October 1998 underscores the fact that averting catastrophe from global warming will be no small task. They concluded that holding carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse culprit, to its current concentration in the atmosphere will require production of 10 terawatts of non-fossil-fuel energy (one tarawatt is equal to 1 trillion watts) -- the equivalent of two-thirds of current primary global energy production -- by 2018. If producing that much carbon-free energy takes until 2035, CO2 will double from today's already climate-disrupting level.
Added Martin Hoffert and his study coauthors, "market inefficiencies may preclude timely development of such technologies at the required scale ...
The past century, accelerated development from wartime and postwar research produced commercial aviation, radar, computer chips, lasers, and the Internet, among other things." The need to stabilize the climate could require a crash program "pursued with the urgency of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo space program."
Though the task is imposing, the clean energy revolution is coming along just in time, promising genuine climate solutions as well as phenomenal economic opportunities. Energy generated with clean sources such as sun, wind, and hydrogen at millions of points, all linked by information technology that manages both power production and consumption for peak efficiency -- this is the picture of an emerging energy web that will parallel the Internet and in many ways be tied to it. It represents the most significant energy transformation since Edison set up the first power plant over a century ago.
We are at the portal of the clean energy revolution. Whether it takes off fast enough to restabilize the climate is an issue of global urgency, with long-term, irreversible implications. Required are gutsy entrepreneurs, visionary business leaders, and public leadership, not only at the federal level, but also from enlightened states and cities moving to protect the planet and seize a significant economic opportunity at the same time.
Patrick Mazza is staff writer and researcher for Climate Solutions. This piece is excerpted from Climate Solutions' upcoming report, "Accelerating the Clean Energy Revolution: How the Northwest Can Lead." |
