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官方人士透露，在未來五年內可能會改變興建更多核能電廠的計畫
凱文普雷特(plattk@csps.com)
Christian Science Monitor記者07.21.00
北京
中國許下宏願，要成為地球上最大的核能國家。在過去不到三年中，就招攬來了一千億美元新建核電廠的生意。
如今，有一場關於未來中國能源的核能化的戰役正在北京當局上演，一些中國官員指出，在可預見的將來，一項尚未施行的商用核子反應器輸入的禁令將會全面地施行。
Michael Marriotte說：「中國已經公開宣佈暫停未來三、四年新建核電廠的訂單」，Michael Marriotte是為華盛頓核能資訊資源服務(Washington-based Nuclear Information and Resource Service)監視中國的能源計劃。
實際上，一位西方外交官員表示，越來越多的報告顯示中國目前有三座運轉中的商用核能組件，以及有超過八座正在建造當中，而中國可能會對未來五年，即2001至2005年期間的新建計劃實施禁令。
美國及歐洲相關領域的專家們表示：假如此一禁令廣泛地施行，即代表了美國及其他西方國家的核能電廠建造業者末日的開端，而這些業者在其本土的市場早就已經枯竭了，中國廣大的市場能點燃核能工業大復活的希望。
就在幾年前，中國宛如核能工業的救星。而美國的電廠設計業者雖是最現代化的科技工業卻幾乎沒有客戶，一位Westinghouse Electric China的官員如是說。
一位西方駐北京官員說：中國將快速地發展核能電廠視為是「一個世界強權重要的地位象徵」，並想要建五十座新核能電廠以因應其快速成長經濟所需的能源。
由政府所經營的中國日報(China Daily)於1997年11月報導說：「中國將在未來二十五年內花費六百億至一千億美元建造核能電廠」，並更進一步地說：「美國廠商將能取得中國一大塊的核能市場」。
受到如此龐大金錢的吸引，Westinghouse及其它大型的能源公司開始長時間辛苦地遊說華府解除禁止核能科技輸出至北京的禁令。這項禁令始於1980年代中期，當時美國的情報顯示中國正援助核能科技，給巴基斯坦及北韓與其他可能在發展核武的國家。
而在1998年年初，當柯林頓總統確認北京已經不再從事於核武擴張之後，即解除了這項禁令。
但正當美中雙方簽署核能合作協定、似乎美國核能電廠輸出到中國的大門已經打開之際，中國發生有史以來第一次重大的核能機件故障事件，因而讓首位具環保意識的總理下令減緩新電廠的興建計劃。
西方外交官員表示，在1998年七月浙江省東部秦山核能電廠意外事件之後，朱熔基總理說：「讓我們暫緩在核能方面的投資，並將我們的重心放在其它的能源上」。
Westinghouse公司駐北京總部主管Daniel Lipman表示，北京方面凍結所有國外電廠建造業者的訂單申請，而不是特別針對美國。
據外交官員表示，中國第一座自建的秦山核能電廠在發現反應器有瑕疵之後，已經關閉長達一年以上。
他說，包括螺栓、監測管及燃料棒等都曾因反應器建造上的缺陷而損壞，並提到「秦山核電站的經驗讓中國得以窺見建造這些東西的複雜程度」。中國最高的核能管理機構－中國核能公司(China National Nuclear Corp.)中一位官員表示：「在秦山核電站意外事件中並無任何的輻射外洩或是人員傷亡」。
這位金姓官員並表示，中國當局已下令加強所有核電廠及燃料供應商的檢查工作。
雖然那些有能力提供中國核能科技的潛在廠商因為中國的核能輸入禁令而受到驚嚇，但它們卻沒有必要因為日漸高漲的「反核武」抗議聲浪而害怕。
這位外交官員說：「我在這裡並沒有看見任何有關反核運動的徵兆」。
中國最激進的環境運動人士戴清（譯名）表示，有個好理由能解釋為何在秦山電廠關閉之後，沒有反核的抗爭行動。
同樣也是調查報告人之一的戴小姐說：「核電廠及其運轉經營過程均被官方列為最高機密」，她接著說：「即使是在中國居於領導地位的核能學者也無法在國營的媒體中發表反核文章」。
實際上，在去年秋天秦山電廠重新運轉之前，中國的報紙就開始概略地報導解釋此電廠「機械故障」的原因。
中國的反核運動不興，為這些西方電廠製造業者所覬覦的中國市場加上模糊的暈圈。
Marriotte先生說：「在中國，當大眾對於核能科技及其危險性毫無所知時，就無須擔心新電廠會遭到強烈的反對」。
Westinghouse及其它美國能源公司期望中國能恢復快速發展核能電廠的計劃，而他們在中國政府中也擁有許多的同盟夥伴。
這位外交官員說：「中國許多省份都想要建造核電廠，因為這能帶來中央政府的投資及新的工作機會」。
他說，在北京，「中國核能管理機構當中有兩派相左的意見」，「而不管是要促進核能發展，或是要暫時擱置，所有的機構都有各自的意見及其既得利益」。
西方及中國官員均認同在短期之內，核能電廠擴展計劃將取決於總理朱熔基對於減緩核能工業發展的決心，以及他是否能經得起來自於共產黨與政府內部擁核派的壓力。
雖然朱熔基預計將在2002年退休，但在他退休之後，快速發展核電的計劃仍將成為一個懸而未決的問題。
這位外交官員說：「中國仍然有潛力成為世界上最大的核能市場」。
Marriotte接著說，隨著電廠製造業者越來越少，「除了亞洲之外，真的也沒地方可去了」。
世界能源資訊服務(World Information Service on Energy)駐阿姆斯特丹(Amsterdam-based)的核能專家Peer de Rijk表示，中國對於是否解除或延續暫停新電廠訂單的禁令，將影響到美國及歐洲尚存核能工業的興衰。他說：「中國對於暫停發展核電的決定將是未來影響核能工業最重大的因素之一」。
原文請見：http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/2000/07/21/fp7s1-csm.shtml
版權歸屬 環境信託基金會(陳均輝譯，蔡季勳審校)
中英對照譯稿請見：http://news.ngo.org.tw/issue/energy/sub-energy00080801.htm
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Sources say the next five-year plan may pull the plug on building more atomic plants.
Kevin Platt (plattk@csps.com)
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor07.21.00
BEIJING
China has long vowed to become one of the biggest nuclear-energy powers on the planet. Less than three years ago, it was touting plans to spend as much as $100 billion on new nuclear
plants.
But today, there is a battle going on in Beijing's corridors of power over the future of atomic energy in China. Some Chinese officials are indicating that an unpublished ban on the import of commercial reactors may be extended for the foreseeable
future.
"China has declared a moratorium on new [nuclear power] plant orders for the next three to four years," says Michael Marriotte, who monitors China's energy plans for the Washington-based Nuclear Information and Resource
Service.
Indeed, a Western diplomat says there are growing reports that China, which now has three commercial nuclear power units operating and eight more under construction, may impose a ban on any new facilities for the duration of the next five-year plan, which covers the period
2001-2005.
If the ban is extended indefinitely, it could mark the beginning of the end for US and other Western nuclear-plant builders whose markets have dried up at home. If lifted, the Chinese market could spark a major renaissance for the nuclear industry, say American and European experts in the
field.
Just a few years ago, China looked like the nuclear industry's salvation. American plant designers had state-of-the art technology but "faced dying demand in the US," says Wu Yong, an executive at Westinghouse Electric
China.
And China saw the rapid development of nuclear plants "as an important status symbol of a major world power," says a Western diplomat based in Beijing. It wanted to build as many as 50 new plants to meet the energy needs of its fast-growing
economy.
The government-run China Daily reported in November 1997 that "China is spending$60 to $100 billion in constructing nuclear power stations in the next 25 years." It added that "US companies will take a big slice of the Chinese
market."
With so much money at stake, Westinghouse and other major energy companies lobbied long and hard for Washington to lift a standing ban on nuclear-technology transfers to Beijing. The ban was imposed in the mid-1980s after US intelligence reports that China was supplying nuclear technology to Pakistan, North Korea, and other countries believed to be focused on developing atomic
weapons.
It was lifted in early 1998, after President Clinton certified that Beijing was no longer engaged in nuclear
proliferation.
But just as the signing of the US-China nuclear-cooperation pact seemed to beopening Beijing's doors to sales of American plants, China's first major nuclear facility malfunction caused its first environmentally conscious premier to order a slowdown in new plant
construction.
After a July 1998 incident at the Qinshan nuclear power plant in eastern Zhejiang province, Premier "Zhu Rongji said, 'Let's put nuclear power on hold right now and put our emphasis on other power sources,' "says the Western diplomat.
Daniel Lipman, an executive at Westinghouse's headquarters in Beijing, says the freeze on new orders applies to all foreign plant builders, and is not aimed specifically at the
US.
Qinshan, China's first domestically built plant, was shut down for more than ayear after mechanical defects were found in its reactor, the diplomat
says.
He says that bolts, monitoring tubes and fuel rods had been damaged due to faulty construction of the reactor, and adds: "Qinshan opened Chinese eyes to the complexity of building these things." An official at the China National Nuclear Corp., the country's top nuclear regulatory agency, says "there were no injuries or any leak of radiation during the incident at
Qinshan."
The official, surnamed Jin, adds China National has since ordered stepped-up inspections of all nuclear power plants and fuel
suppliers.
Although China's potential suppliers of nuclear technology in the West are alarmed at the ban on wholesale plant imports, they need not fear the rise of"No Nukes"
protests.
"I've never seen any sign of an anti-nuclear movement here," says
the diplomat.
Dai Qing, one of China's most ardent environmental activists, says there's a good reason for the lack of an anti-nuclear outcry following the Qinshan
shutdown.
"Nuclear power stations and their operations are classified as top secret by the state," says Ms. Dai, who is also an investigative reporter. "Even China's leading nuclear scientists could find no outlet in the state-run media here to publish anti-nuclear articles," she
adds.
Indeed, not until after Qinshan resumed operations last autumn did Chinese newspapers gave sketchy accounts of a "mechanical hitch" at the
site.
The lack of an anti-nuclear movement here added to the halo surrounding the Chinese market for Western plant
manufacturers.
In China, Mr. Marriotte says, "when the public knows nothing about nuclear technology or its dangers, there's not going to be any fear of broad-based opposition to new
plants."
Westinghouse and other American power companies hope that China will revive plans for high-speed development of nuclear power, and they have many allies within the Chinese
government.
"Many provinces would like to build nuclear power plants because they bring the central government's investment, new jobs, etc.," says the
diplomat.
In Beijing, "the Chinese have competing government agencies in regulating nuclear power," he says. "All these entities have a different opinion and a different vested interest in promoting nuclear power or putting it on the back
burner."
The Western diplomat and Chinese officials agree that the short-term future of nuclear power expansion will depend on the depth of Premier Zhu's determination to slow down the nuclear industry and his ability to withstand pressure from pro-nuclear forces in the Communist Party and government.
But after Zhu, who is slated to retire in 2002, steps down, the issue of rapid nuclear power growth could again become an open
question.
"China still has the potential to become the largest market in the world for nuclear power stations," the diplomat
said.
For the dwindling number of plant makers, "There's really nowhere else to goexcept Asia," Marriotte
adds.
Peer de Rijk, a nuclear power expert at the Amsterdam-based World Information Service on Energy, says China's decision on whether to extend or end its ban on new plant orders could break or make the remaining nuclear energy firms in the US and Europe."China's decision on the moratorium will be one of the most important factors in the future of the nuclear power industry," he says.
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