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作者：傑奇•艾倫•朱利安諾 博士
•我們已經邁入石油時代的末期…我們有兩種選擇，一是擁抱未來並認清我們的確需要各種不同的燃料；二是忽視現實，終將被時代潮流淘汰。--- 麥克•鮑林，ARCO（現在是英國石油公司BP）的執行長，1999年2月9日於德州休士頓。
•無論我們的經濟有多進步、我們的技術變得多精良，在可預見的未來，我們還是得依賴化石燃料。---美國總統候選人喬治•布希，2000年10月13日於密西根的Pontiac。
•和平不僅是一個我們追求的長程目標，同時也是達到這個目標的手段。---金恩博士
政治與工業界的領袖都喜歡告訴我們：只有在經濟不受影響，老百姓有錢有閒的情況下，我們才能去考慮環境問題。但是，結果卻屢次證明了，其實環境問題才是所有重大決策的基本課題。
當初歐洲人決定殖民北美洲，極大的原因是看上了此地豐饒的資源。這群歐洲殖民者絲毫不懈地取得這些資源；對於利用這些資源的需求，則處處展現在美國立國精神、律法與價值觀之中。
當我們砍伐森林、將河流改道，逐步開採礦產的同時，環境問題很快地一一浮現。但是，自有文明以來，還沒有哪一項資源能夠像化石燃料那樣，能徹底改變世界的面貌。
在1920年代發現石油之後，洛杉磯隨即出現了大批的鑽油機具。（照片提供
http://www.dieoff.org/）
幾十年來，便宜的石油與天然氣源源不絕地被開採出來，提供給居家與商業用途使用，所以我們很輕易地就會認為，這些資源是取之不盡、用之不竭的；但事實並非如此，即使是石油公司的分析師都已經開始討論，這種有限、無法再生的資源免不了有用完的一天。
目前，學者專家都已同意，石油與其他資源「終究」會有消耗殆盡的一日。而當資源價格因此提高的時候，擁有資源與缺乏資源的人之間的鴻溝，將會越來越大。我們大多數人，今日或許還擁有資源，到明天就兩手空空了。
然而，石油公司的投資者若沒有遭遇強大的阻力，是決不輕易罷手的。即便是在開採成本過高的地方，他們也會繼續尋找新的油源；同時，他們也正在開發新的市場，那些過去曾經被認為不存在的銷售通路。
目前所有的大石油公司都在尋找替代性的能源，可是，他們非但沒有廣為應用這些新技術，反而只是零散地釋出相關技術。我不禁起疑，等到最後一滴石油用完的那一天，石油公司將會奇蹟式地推出以氫氣、風力與太陽能為主的新能源製造廠。
科羅拉多州丹佛市的交通情形（照片提供
美國國家再生能源實驗室）
在1998年於多倫多舉行的「美國地理協會」會議中，柯林•坎貝爾指出：「這一百五十多年來，人類已經習慣了持續成長的能源供應，這些能源不但便宜，而且充裕」。坎貝爾身為前石油探勘的地質學家，與1998年3月「科學美國人(Scientific American)」雜誌中的「向廉價石油說再見」一文的共同撰稿者，他相信石油產量將在這10年內達到頂峰。
坎貝爾提到「在我看來，這對於工業、世界政治與經濟的啟示是非常巨大的」，當其他人認為石油生產的高峰還要再等20年時，其實這一天已經迫在眉睫了。
當已開採的石油燃燒量等同於未開採的量時，我們就達到了石油開採的頂峰。接下來如果要開採石油，就必須花費較大的成本從焦油、重油與頁岩內的碳氫化合物中取得。
位於巴黎的國際能源總署認為，石油生產可能在2015年之前達到最高點。在2020年之前，每天對於石油的需求將會超過供應量達1千7百萬桶之多。
石油什麼時候會用完，是一個更難預測的問題，且並不如『石油生產達到頂峰』這個問題那麼重要。如果世界對石油的依賴一直未受遏止，那麼，達到石油生產頂峰的那一天也就是危機來臨的那一天，因為需求遠高過供給。有錢人將會變得更為有錢，同時，經濟上的階級差距會更為擴大。
你可以想像要花5元、10元、甚至20元美金才能買到一加侖汽油嗎？在我們有生之年，這的確可能發生。
這樣嚴峻的事實將傷害全世界大公司的利益甚鉅，也因此影響了今日美國與地球上幾乎所有國家的外交政策。為了保證便宜的石油能持續供應，各國無不樂於發動戰爭。
【文章連載】
■說是一套，做是一套 (上) (下)
全文與圖片詳見：http://ens-news.com/ens/oct2001/2001L-10-26g.html
版權歸屬Environment News Service(ENS)，環境信託基金會 (陳潁峰 譯，黃媺雯、蔡麗伶 審校)
中英對照譯稿請見：http://e-info.org.tw/issue/energy/2001/
sub-energy01112701.htm |
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By Jackie Alan Giuliano, Ph.D.
•"We've embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil. ... Embrace the future and recognize the growing demand for a wide range of fuels, or ignore reality and slowly but surely be left behind." -- Michael Bowlin, CEO, ARCO (now BP), Houston, Texas, February 9, 1999
•"No matter how advanced our economy might be, no matter how sophisticated our equipment becomes, for the foreseeable future we will still depend on fossil fuels."-- Presidential candidate George W. Bush, Pontiac, Michigan, October 13, 2000
• "Peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but a means by which we arrive at that goal." -- Martin Luther King, Jr.
Political and industrial leaders are fond of telling us that environmental issues can be considered only if there is enough time and money and only if the economy is not affected. Yet time and time again, environmental issues prove to be the fundamental basis for major policy decisions.
The decision to colonize North America was heavily influenced by the vast resources that were present. The European colonists began a relentless drive to capture those resources, and most fundamental U.S. doctrines, laws, and values were born out of the need to use those resources.
Very quickly, environmental issues surfaced as forests were denuded, streams diverted, and minerals mined. But no single resource may have changed the face of the world as much as fossil fuels have since their discovery.
Oil derricks in Los Angeles shortly after the discovery of oil there in the 1920s (Photo courtesy
http://www.dieoff.org/)
With a seemingly endless supply of relatively cheap gasoline and natural gas for our homes and businesses, it is easy to believe that we can never run out. Yet this has never been the case and even oil industry analysts are discussing the inevitable end to this finite, non-renewable resource.
Now scholars and analysts are agreeing that we WILL run out of oil and other resources. As prices increase, the gap between those who have and those who don't will widen. Many of us who are those who have today will be the have-nots of tomorrow.
Oil industry investors, however, will not go down without a fight. Fossil fuels are now being searched out in places once deemed too costly to explore, and markets are being sought that would have once been considered out of the question.
All major oil companies are now working on alternative energy sources, but rather than encouraging their introduction more widely today, they are trickling out the technology. I suspect that when the last drop of oil is gone, the oil companies will miraculously unveil their new energy producing plants that run on hydrogen, wind, and solar power.
Traffic in Denver, Colorado (Photo by Warren Gretz courtesy
National Renewable Energy
Lab)
"For over 150 years, mankind has been used to an ever growing supply of cheap and abundant energy," said Colin J. Campbell at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America in Toronto in 1998. Campbell is the co-author of an article in the March 1998 "Scientific American" magazine entitled "The End of Cheap Oil." A former exploration geologist, he believes that oil production will peak within the decade.
"The implication of this on industry, world politics, and economics seems to me to be enormous," Campbell said. Others feel the peak may be two decades from now, but it will come.
When the quantity of oil already burned since oil extraction began equals the amount yet to be extracted, the peak will have been reached. More costly methods will be used for a while to extract oil from tar, heavy oil and hydrocarbons locked in shale.
The International Energy Agency in Paris thinks that oil production could peak before the year 2015. By 2020, the demand for oil could exceed the supply by 17 million barrels per
day.
The end of oil production is a much harder date to predict and is not really as important as when production peaks. The peak will be a time of crisis if world dependence on oil continues unchecked since demand will exceed the supply. This is the time when the rich will become very much richer while the gap between economic classes widens.
Imagine paying five, 10, or even 20 dollars for a gallon of gas. It could happen in our lifetime.
These stark realities that jeopardize the profits of the world's biggest companies have affected the modern day foreign policy of the United States and nearly every nation on the planet. Countries will gladly go to war to insure that cheap oil is available.
http://ens-news.com/ens/oct2001/2001L-10-26g.html
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