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作者：萊思特•R•布朗
糧食大戰
水資源的缺乏，只是眾多威脅中國糧食產量的環境及經濟因素之一。自1994年以來，中國不曾間斷地想要達到糧產的自給自足，所以，除了(1)採取遠高於國際市場水準的糧食價格、(2)大規模過度犁耕農地而造成了世界上最大的塵土盆地（編按：乾旱而多塵暴地帶），並且(3)在華北平原超抽地下水。
價格的不正常、地下水位的下降以及嚴酷乾旱，導致糧食收成由1998年的3億9千2百萬噸（此為歷年來之最高記錄），持續下滑至2001年的3億3千5百萬噸；將今年（2001）的收穫量和預期的消費數量相比較後，會出現短缺46,00萬噸的部分，中國歷史上從未有過如此龐大的糧食短缺情形。自去年3,400萬噸的糧食短缺之後，緊接著又是今年（2001）劇烈的糧食不足，這的確掀起糧食安全存量的嚴重疑慮。
由於一連串的糧食短缺以及中國進口糧食的意願低落，使得糧食存量滑落了約8,100萬噸。而根據目前糧食存量大幅下降的情形，在2002年，另一波相當規模的收成短少，將迫使中國大量進口糧食，以防止食物價格飛漲。
從近期的大豆經驗來看，中國的穀類糧食進口量似乎會快速爬升。當1994年穀類糧食價格升高，已導致民眾轉而消費僅次於小麥、米及玉米的第四大農作物-大豆。然而，儘管大豆需求倍增，大豆的收成自1994年至今仍滑落3%。結果，這次出乎意料的轉變，使得中國從1993年小量的大豆出口國，轉變為2001年世界最大的大豆進口國；在3,000萬噸的消費量當中，進口部分佔了1,400萬噸。
中國的小麥何去何從？（照片提供 美國農業部）
若中國在2001年年底如期加入世貿組織，它承諾必須進口7百萬噸的小麥及500萬噸的玉米。但是，假如在2002年糧食收成仍然嚴重不足，中國將被迫進口更多這些糧食作物。
由於地下蓄水層的耗盡，中國必須思考，如何平衡水的供需，有三個可能的方案是：南水北送、水資源保護管理方案、以及糧食進口。自長江流域輸水至北方，將會花費數十億元人民幣，並使數十萬人被迫遷移。相較之下，較小規模的投資是發展省水產業、省水家電，最重要的是省水灌溉設備，如此將可帶來更多的水。由於1千噸的水只能生產1噸的糧食，所以進口糧食會比進口水來得更有效率。
不論中國只做水資源保護管理，或者並行南水北送的工程，它終將成為世界上最大的糧食進口國。即使中國只進口其糧食供應量的10%，亦即4,000萬噸，它仍在一夕之間成為世界最大的糧食進口國，而全世界可輸出的糧食供應量將會面臨極大的壓力，全球糧價也會因此提高。這些事情一旦成真，不必透過報紙，我們也能從雜貨店的結帳櫃檯得知這殘酷的現實。(2001.10.26)
萊思特•R•布朗是「地球政策研究中心」的發起人兼主席，他也是總部設於盛頓特區的「看守世界研究中心」的發起人及所長。
【文章連載】
■中國地下水位的酷刑 (上) (下)
全文與圖片詳見: http://www.gristmagazine.com/grist/main
dish/brown102601.asp
版權歸屬Earth Day Network，環境資訊協會(鄧國光 譯，黃媺雯 審校)
中英對照全文：http://e-info.org.tw/issue/water/2002/
wa02012101.htm
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by Lester R. Brown
Against the Grain
Water scarcity is only one of many environmental and economic factors threatening China's grain production. China has been striving tirelessly to maintain self-sufficient grain production since 1994. It has done so by raising support prices of grain well above the world market level, by over-plowing land on a scale that helped create the world's largest dust bowl, and by over-pumping the aquifers under the North China Plain.
Weak prices, falling water tables, and severe drought together caused the grain harvest in 2001 to drop to 335 million tons, down from the all-time high of 392 million tons in 1998. This year's harvest will fall short of projected consumption by 46 million tons, easily the biggest grain shortage in China's history. This dramatic deficit, coming as it does on the heels of last year's 34 million-ton shortfall, raises serious questions about future food security.
The combination of back-to-back shortages and China's reluctance to import grain have caused the nation's grain reserves to fall by roughly 81 million tons. With accessible grain stocks now largely depleted, another sizable crop shortfall in 2002 would almost certainly force China to import large amounts of grain to prevent soaring food prices.
China's grain imports could climb quickly, as its recent experience with soybeans shows. When grain support prices were raised in 1994, resources were diverted from soybeans, the nation's fourth-biggest crop after wheat, rice, and corn. As a result, the soybean harvest has fallen 6 percent since 1994, while demand has doubled. In an abrupt turnaround, China has gone from being a small net exporter of soybeans in 1993 to being the world's largest importer in 2001, bringing in 14 million of the 30 million tons it consumes.
Whither China's wheat? Photo: USDA.
If China joins the World Trade Organization in late 2001, as expected, it must promise to import 7 million tons of wheat and 5 million tons of corn. But if the nation has another sizable grain harvest shortfall in 2002, it will likely be forced to import far more.
With its aquifers being depleted, China must consider its options for reestablishing a balance between water use and supply. Three possible initiatives stand out: diversion of water from the south to the north, water conservation, and grain imports. A south/north diversion to transport water from the Yangtze River Basin would cost tens of billions of dollars and displace hundreds of thousands of people. A comparable investment in more water-efficient industrial practices, more water-efficient household appliances, and, above all, more-efficient irrigation practices would likely yield more water. Since it takes 1,000 tons of water to produce one ton of grain, importing grain is the most efficient way to import water.
Regardless of whether it concentrates solely on conservation or also does a south/north diversion, China will almost certainly have to turn to the world market for grain imports. If it imports even 10 percent of its grain supply -- 40 million tons -- it will become the world's largest grain importer overnight, putting intense pressure on exportable grain supplies and driving up global prices. If this happens, we won't need to read about it in the newspapers. We'll learn the hard way, at the grocery store checkout counter.(2001.10.26)
Lester R. Brown is founder and president of the Earth Policy Institute, and founder and chair of the board of the Worldwatch Institute in Washington, D.C.
http://www.gristmagazine.com/grist/main
dish/brown102601.asp
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