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作者：Donella H. Meadows, 05.22.00
在此鳥語花香的五月中旬，我的桌上放置著分析全球生態系狀況的最佳報告，此刻正是一個迫切的時間點。我認為，這份報告之所以最佳，並不是因為它透露了什麼好消息，而是因為它簡捷、清楚，而且切中要點。
這份報告以簡單的彩色表格，呈現對於人類生命支援系統健康狀況的評估結果。表格有5欄，分別列出與人類生存休戚相關的5種生態系統包括農地、海水、森林、淡水，與牧地。而橫向的4列，則就這些生態系統所生產供應人類生活需求的資源，列出包括食物，纖維、水(含質與量的部份)，與生物多樣性 (指對其它物種的支援)等4項指標。而方格的不同顏色，則代表介於"極佳" 到 "很差"等的不同等級的評估結果。
報告顯示，沒有任何"極佳"的狀態存在於任何生態系中。淡水生態系的生物多樣性功能被評估為"很差"，而農地生態系的水質與生物多樣性、森林生態系的生物多樣性，以及淡水生態系的水質則屬"不理想"。其他有8項"表現平平"，只有3項屬"好"的等級，分別是農地、森林與淡水等三個生態系的生產狀況。此外，有3個方格是空白的，表示沒有關聯或沒有評估。
看到目前為止，我只能承受這麼多了。嘆一口氣，我走到屋外思考著，外頭的農場，傳，一波波婉轉的鳥鳴，穀倉的燕子俯衝下來截取飩魚，一隻金鶯在開滿花的蘋果樹上嬉戲著。哇！金鶯的歌聲清脆美麗，牠色彩艷麗橘黑身影映襯在白色的花叢間。表格的顏色或許令人沮喪，但是，這裏一隅的顏色，卻讓人心醉。
故事尚未結束，這個星球仍然充滿值得珍惜的美好事物。
金鶯所帶來的悸動促使我更仔細地閱讀這一份圖表。格子裡的顏色告訴我每一個生態系的現況。在每一個格子內，有一個箭號顯示都各生態系的未來發展。箭號朝上表示生態系的承載力在提昇中; 相反的，朝下則表示該生態系的承載力正在衰退中；若同時出現上下兩種箭號，則是互有消漲的波動狀況。在這17個方格內，海水的水質與淡水生產力是出現上下波動的狀況。森林生產力(ps:有傳言指出當造林與天然林砍伐同時增加，表面上不會出現纖維短缺的現象)在提昇中。其他的14個評量的項目，包括森林的生物多樣性與水質、水量，則都往負面發展。
這是以全球的觀點來看，而這些是維持人類生命的系統。唉！又該到屋外走走了。
在這個農場上，有一些良好的底層地，是我們來到這裡的主要原因之一。一整年的時間，我們任其長滿苜宿與野草，緊接著，我們犁了7畝地，並播種、撿去大石子、灑下肥料與石灰、然後耙地。我的農夫Stephen與Kerry，現在正在經營這塊田地，以便在6月到11月間，持續供應給50個預約的家庭。再過一年，我們會將可以確認這塊地為有機農地。目前，這塊地已可評為"好"，而我們正朝向使它成為 "極佳"的目標邁進。
故事尚未結束。至少，在有些地方，人們正努力地創造資源，而不是去破壞它們。
這份報告，名為"世界資源2000-2001: 人類與生態系: 磨損中的生命網"，是由聯合國環境規劃署、世界銀行與世界資源研究所負責召集的一群科學家與顧問合力下的成果，人數之多需一整頁的篇幅才能全部介紹。為免報告的表格沒有清楚傳達，內文中以用斜體字表明了他們嚴正的觀點，即 "生態系的長期生產力正在衰退中，這對人類的發展與所有物種的福祉有著相當不利的影響"。
過去十年間，許許多多的團體都已得到類似的結論，但是，並沒有得到重視。聽聽媒體的報導，政治人物的政見、以及經濟學家的預測，都沒有聽見任何指明什麼才是現今世界上最重要之事實的觀點，亦即是，我們正在破壞支持我們生存與生產力的生態系。然何，為何我們都不談論到這點，都不重視它？
沿著底層地順勢生長的牧草，上面閃爍著黃色的蒲公英，使得5月的綠意更濃了。我們的3匹馬與10隻母牛在這裡過著天堂般的生活。我們維持低庫存，並採以輪流放牧的模式，以維持土壤的地力。
農場邊的森林前緣呈現淺綠的色帶，教我們不得不為之擔心它這因酸雨而產生的效應。氣候變遷使的樹木病蟲害的情況更加惡化，許多松樹因之而死亡，這發展更持續向位於北邊的我們逼近。西洋栗、榆樹與灰胡桃樹都已消失。雖然我們努力希望使這片森林更具生產力，但事實上，如果整個周遭的環境品質每況愈下地由"表現平平"，變成"差"，或甚至是"糟糕"，這樣努力是不可能實現的。
這個故事還沒完結。生命正爆發出向前推進躍動，朝向豐饒、具生產力、潔淨，與最驚人的美發展。若是我們能持續下去，將是一股令人肅然起敬的力量。
Donella H. Meadows是永續研究所所長暨達特茅斯學院環境研究副教授
版權歸屬 Earth Day NetWork，環境信託協會 (黃曉菊 譯 ，周秀慧 審校)
中英對照全文：http://news.ngo.org.tw/reviewer/donella/
re-donella000807.htm |
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by Donella H. Meadows
05.22.00
The timing is unbearable. Here on my desk in the middle of the blooming, buzzing month of May is the best report yet on the state of the world's ecosystems. Best not because it contains good news -- it doesn't -- but because it's short and clear and blunt.
The report evaluates the health of our life-support system with a simple grid of colored squares. Five columns across the top list the five kinds of ecosystems from which we live -- agricultural land, coastal waters, forests, freshwater, grazing land. Four rows down rank each of these systems according to their ability to produce what we need from them: food and fiber, water (both quality and quantity), and biodiversity (the support of other species). The colors of the squares cover a range from "excellent" to "bad."
One glance reveals that there's no "excellent." There's one "bad" (freshwater biodiversity) and four "poors" (ag land water quality, ag land biodiversity, forest biodiversity, freshwater quality). Eight "fairs," only three "goods" (ag land production, forest production, freshwater production). Three squares are blank, meaning not relevant or not assessed.
That's all I can take in one dose. I sigh and wander outside, where our farm is twittering. Warblers migrate through in waves, barn swallows swoop for black flies, an oriole pours forth joy from a blooming apple tree. Wow! The song of an oriole is liquid gold, and then to see its brilliant orange and black against white blossoms! The colors on that grid may be gloomy, but the colors in this little spot in Vermont are amazing.
The story isn't over yet. The planet is still full of magnificent things worth saving.
That oriole fortifies me to study the chart more carefully. The colors of the boxes show the present state of each ecosystem. Within each box is an arrow showing its direction of change. The arrow slopes up if the ecosystem's capacity is increasing, down if it is decreasing, both up and down if the trend is mixed. Of the 17 squares, two are mixed (coastal water quality, freshwater production). One is improving (forest production -- the legend says that forest plantations and natural forest cutting are increasing and there's no fiber scarcity in sight). Fourteen, including forest biodiversity and water quality and quantity, are pointing down.
That's on a global scale. These are the systems that sustain human life. Whew! Time to go outside again.
There's some nice bottomland on this farm, one of the main reasons we came here. For one year we left in it alfalfa and grass, then we plowed under seven acres, sowed a cover crop, plowed that down, picked out the big rocks, spread manure and lime, harrowed. Stephen and Kerry, our vegetable farmers, are planting it now to supply 50 subscribing families with fresh-picked produce from June through October. Next year we'll be able to certify the land as organic. I'd call it "good"; we're aiming to get it up to "excellent."
The story isn't over. At least in small places people are actively building resources instead of tearing them down.
The report -- entitled World Resources 2000-2001: People and Ecosystems: The Fraying Web of Life -- was put out by a page-long list of scientists and advisors convened by the U.N. Development Programme, the U.N. Environment Programme, the World Bank, and the World Resources Institute. Just in case their grid doesn't convey the point, these august bodies conclude in italics, "The current rate of decline in the long-term productive capacity of ecosystems could have devastating implications for human development and the welfare of all species."
Dozens of groups have come to a similar conclusion over the past decade, but somehow it hasn't sunk in. Listen to the chatter of the media, the pronouncements of politicians, the forecasts of economists, and you don't hear any recognition of what must be the most important fact of the present world. We are undermining the systems that support all people and all production. Why don't we even talk about this? Why can't we focus on it?
The pastures sloping up from the bottomland are that intense May green, spangled with yellow dandelions. Our three horses and 10 cows are in heaven up there. We're keeping the stock count low; we'll do rotational grazing to help build fertility.
High up on the ridge the forest is light-green lace. We worry about that forest. Acid rain falls on it. Climate change encourages the spread of pests like the woolly adelgid, which kills hemlocks and is moving north toward us. The chestnuts, elms, butternuts are already gone. Though we hope to make our forest more productive, it's not possible to move a small place toward "excellent" if systems all around are crashing down from "fair" to "poor" to "bad."
The story is far from over. Life is bursting forth, pushing, throbbing, aiming toward fertility, productivity, purity, and the most astonishing beauty. It's an awesome force working in our direction, if we would let it do so.
Donella H. Meadows is director of the Sustainability Institute and an adjunct professor of environmental studies at Dartmouth College.
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