氣象獎得主警示:暖化速度之快 超出預期! | 環境資訊中心
國際新聞

氣象獎得主警示:暖化速度之快 超出預期!

2008年04月09日
摘譯自2008年4月6日ENS瑞士,日內瓦報導;鄭佳宜編譯;蔡麗伶審校

空拍氣象圖。圖片來源:pingnews.com甫獲氣象學界最高榮譽肯定的得主,預測「未來全球暖化現象程度,將遠比迄今所預期嚴重」。

世界氣象組織將第52屆「國際氣象組織獎」頒給舒克拉(Jagadish Shukla)教授,表彰他對氣候和水文科學的貢獻。3月28日,世界氣象組織在華盛頓特區舉辦頒獎典禮,由美國國家科學院主持,這個獎項主要表彰對氣候學、水文學、或促進國際交流這兩個領域的傑出貢獻者。

舒克拉教授在2006年發表的論文中直指氣象模型的準確度是有高下的,首開在學術論文中評比模型準確度之例。在推估氣候變遷時,假使增加最準確的幾個模型所佔比重,則全球暖化將比原先所預測的速度更快。任教於計算機學院的舒克拉教授認為:「增加高可信度模型的比重後,結果顯示未來暖化腳步將比迄今估計更快。」

舒克拉教授自1991年起擔任全球環境和社會組織主席,自1994年在維吉尼亞州喬治梅森大學教授地球科學和全球變遷,自2003年起擔任氣候動力學系主任。

舒克拉教授致力研究天氣和氣候預測研究,和亞洲季風動力學、森林消退和沙漠化。 他的研究提出潮汐預測性,並指出傳統科學預測短期氣候的誤差。 舒克拉教授並協助印度建立天氣和氣候研究中心。

印度首次接受美國捐贈超級電腦,用以預測季風時,舒克拉教授受邀前往印度擔任召集人,在新德理成立國家中期天氣預報中心,他協助邀集和訓練科學研究員,並為印度設立一套全球天氣預測模型。

過去34年,舒克拉教授每年回訪他的故鄉,並在他出生的村落米爾(Mirdha)成立甘地大學,為偏遠的印度Uttar Pradesh的Ballia區域的鄉下學生提供教育機會。

成立於1950年的世界氣候組織(前身為1873年成立的),自1951年成為聯合國專門機構。 1955年,世界氣候組織決策單位世界氣象大會決議設立國際氣候組織獎(IMO Prize),以紀念創會的機構IMO。

Meteorological Prize Winner Warns of Accelerating Warming
GENEVA, Switzerland, April 6, 2008 (ENS)

The man who has just won the climate science community's highest prize, predicts "a higher future global warming estimate than expected heretofore."

Professor Jagadish Shukla has been awarded the 52nd International Meteorological Organization Prize for his contributions to meteorological and hydrological science.

The award was presented March 28 by the World Meteorological Organization in Washington, DC at an event hosted by the National Academy of Sciences. It recognizes outstanding work in meteorology and hydrology, as well as contributions to international collaboration in both scientific fields.

Some climate models are better than others, Dr. Shukla said in 2006 as he published the first paper ranking their accuracy. He that when the most accurate models are weighted more heavily than less accurate ones is assessing climate change, it appears that the climate is changing more quickly than anticipated.

A professor in the School of Computational Sciences, Shukla said, "Giving the higher fidelity models more weight implies a higher future global warming estimate than expected heretofore."

Professor Shukla has been president of the Institute of Global Environment and Society since 1991.He has served as professor of Earth Sciences and Global Change at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia since 1994 and as chairman of Climate Dynamics there since 2003.

Dr. Shukla has contributed to the understanding of the predictability of weather and climate including the Asian monsoon dynamics, deforestation and desertification.

His research has established that there is predictability in the midst of chaos and that there is a scientific basis for short-term climate prediction.

Dr. Shukla assisted in creating weather and climate research centers in India.

When India received the first supercomputer from the USA under special agreement for monsoon forecasting, he was invited by India to be the scientific leader in establishing the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in New Delhi. He helped recruit and train the scientific staff, and implemented a global model to make weather forecasts for India.

For the past 34 years, he has visited his village every year and helped establish the Gandhi College in his birth village of Mirdha, India, for the education of rural students in the Ballia district of Uttar Pradesh.

Established in 1873, the IMO is parent to today's World Meteorological Organization, established in 1950 and designated a UN Specialized Agency in 1951.

In 1955, the World Meteorological Organization's decision-making body, the World Meteorological Congress, created the "IMO Prize" in honor of its founding parent.

全文及圖片詳見:ENS

作者

蔡麗伶(LiLing Barricman)

In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.