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全球暖化所必須付出的代價:天價

2008年05月28日
摘譯自2008年05月23日ENS美國,華府報導;游珮綺編譯;蔡麗伶、莫聞審校

如果沒有即時採取行動對抗暖化,熱浪將更頻繁的出現。圖片來源:ENS如果全球暖化繼續下去,到2100年的時候,紐約的氣候將會像今天的拉斯維加斯,舊金山的氣候也會像現今的紐奧良,而波士頓的平均氣溫則會像田納西州的孟菲斯市一樣。

根據自然資源保護委員會(Natural Resources Defense Council, NRDC)委託塔夫斯大學(Tufts University)研究員所做並於週四出版的研究報告指出,高溫將不僅會影響經濟,身體也無法適應高溫。

根據報告預估,再過100年,全球暖化程度將可能使大部分的美國地區平均溫度上升華氏13度,而阿拉斯加將會上升18度。

報告主筆安克曼(Frank Ackerman)表示,「有一些重要的影響是無法估計的,因此實際情況將會比數字所呈現出來的結果更嚴重;但是對於那些我們可以用數字估計出來的衝擊則已經是夠糟的了。氣候變遷早在本世紀末之前就已經衝擊著美國經濟,除非我們現在就開始採取行動。」

塔夫斯大學的研究員也提出二種方法,用以估計我們對氣候變遷無所作為所必須付出的成本。

一種是全面性的評估方式,以尖端科技為基礎透過電腦模型分析我們可以發現,如果對全球暖化無所作為,至2100年我們所必須負擔的成本將是美國國內生產毛額的3.6%,總數高達每年3兆8千億美元。

另一方面,從比較詳細的逆轉換算模式分析(bottom-up analysis)發現,全球暖化可能帶來的四大衝擊,如颶風破壞,房地產損失,漸增的能源成本以及水資源成本等,至2100年新增的成本支出將佔美國國內生產毛額的1.8%,每年將近1兆9千億美元。

自然資源保護委員會氣候中心主任拉修夫(Dan Lashof)表示,「我們等得越久,所必須承擔的後果就越痛苦、所必須付出的代價也越昂貴。報告的結果是無可否認的-我們必須現在開始行動。」

「而美國參議院所推出的氣候安全法案(Climate Security Act)是我們目前最好的機會,針對全球暖化污染設立一個明確的限制範圍,並且提供相應的市場讓真正有助於降低全球暖化的公司能得到獎勵。」

Global Warming Sticker Shock
WASHINGTON, DC, May 23, 2008 (ENS)

If global warming continues unchecked, by 2100, New York City will feel like Las Vegas does today and San Francisco will have a climate comparable to that of today's New Orleans. In 2100, Boston will have average temperatures like those in Memphis, Tennessee today.

These higher temperatures will be uncomfortable financially as well as physically, according to a report released Thursday by researchers at Tufts University, commissioned by the Natural Resources Defense Council, NRDC.

Over the next 100 years, global warming will increase the average temperature across most of the United States by 13 degrees Fahrenheit and by 18 degrees in Alaska, the report estimates.

"Some important impacts are priceless, so the real situation is worse than the numbers can convey," said the report's lead author, Frank Ackerman. "But the numbers, for those impacts we can put prices on, are bad enough. Climate change is on a collision course with the U.S. economy, long before the end of the century, unless we act now."

The Tufts researchers present two ways of estimating the costs of inaction on climate change.

A comprehensive estimate based on state-of-the-art computer modeling finds that doing nothing on global warming will cost the United States economy more than 3.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, by 2100. That amounts to $3.8 trillion annually in today's dollars.

On the other hand, a detailed, bottom-up analysis finds that four categories of global warming impacts - hurricane damage, real estate losses, increased energy costs and water costs - will add up to a price tag of 1.8 percent of GDP by 2100. That's almost $1.9 trillion annually in today's dollars.

Dan Lashof, director of NRDC's Climate Center, said, "The longer we wait, the more painful and expensive the consequences will be. This report's findings are undeniable - we must act now."

"The Climate Security Act currently in the U.S. Senate is our best opportunity to set a concrete limit on global warming pollution and provide an accompanying market that rewards companies for making real reductions," Lashof said.

全文及圖片詳見:ENS

作者

蔡麗伶(LiLing Barricman)

In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.