Environmental economists have identified August 20 as “Earth Overshoot Day,” the day when humanity has consumed as much renewable natural resources as the planet can regenerate in one year.
Earth Overshoot Day is an initiative of the international sustainability think tank Global Footprint. According to Global Footprint’s calculations, today humanity’s demands exceed Earth’s carrying capacity – we are in the red for the rest of 2013.
Human demand for renewable ecological resources and the services they provide is now equivalent to that of more than 1.5 Earths.
The data shows that humanity is on track to require the resources of two planets before mid-century. But back in 1961, human demand was met by the resources of just 0.7 planets.
The calculation of Earth Overshoot Day is based on Ecological Footprint data, which measures how much nature there is, how much humans use, and who uses what.
The National Footprint Accounts, developed by Global Footprint Network, provide comprehensive data about humanity’s demand on nature. Based on approximately 6,000 data points per country per year, they track how this demand compares across 232 countries, territories, and regions, and how it relates to the planet’s biological capacity to meet these demands.
“Environmental changes such as deforestation, collapsing fisheries, and carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere indicate that human demand is likely to be exceeding the regenerative and absorptive capacity of the biosphere,” says Global Footprint.
“As the demands upon natural systems rapidly increase due to the swelling global economy and the need to attain better standards of living, several studies suggest that many of the Earth’s thresholds are being exceeded and that, because of this, the biosphere’s future ability to provide for humanity is at risk,” Global Footprint warns.
Global Footprint data now suggests that since 2001, Earth Overshoot Day has come three days earlier each year.
Each decade, Earth Overshoot Day appears to have arrived one month earlier. In 1993, Earth Overshoot Day fell on October 21. In 2003, Overshoot Day was on September 22. This year, August 20 is Overshoot Day.
China’s total Ecological Footprint is the world’s largest because it is the world’s most populous nation, according to the 2013 Global Footprint report. China’s per capita Footprint is smaller than those of countries in Europe or North America, but for the past seven years it has exceeded what is available per person worldwide. “If everybody were to live like the typical resident of China, it would take 1.2 Earths to support the global population,” the think tank says.
Other countries’ per capita demands on the planet’s ecosystems are even higher. If everybody were to live like United States residents today, it would take four Earths to support the global population.
In Qatar, the typical resident requires the resources of six and a half Earths.
Current resource trends already cannot meet the needs of the planet’s seven billion population. About two billion people lack access to the resources required to meet their basic needs.
Today, more than 80 percent of the world’s population lives in countries that use more than their own ecosystems can renew. These “ecological debtor” countries either deplete their own ecological resources or get them from elsewhere.
Ecological debtors are using more than they have within their own borders. Japan’s residents consume the ecological resources of 7.1 Japans. It would take four Italys to support Italy. Egypt uses the ecological resources of 2.4 Egypts.
Not all countries demand more than their ecosystems can provide, but even the reserves of such “ecological creditors” like Brazil, Indonesia, and Sweden are shrinking over time, says Global Footprint.”We can no longer sustain a widening budget gap between what nature is able to provide and how much our infrastructure, economies and lifestyles require.”
“It is possible to turn the tide. Ecological debtors have an incentive to reduce their resource dependence, while creditors have the economic, political and strategic motive for preserving their ecological capital,” says Global Footprint Network. “Rather than liquidating resources, it is wiser to treat them as an ongoing source of wealth.”
In 2011, Earth Overshoot Day came a few weeks later than it did in 2010, but this does not mean humans reduced the global overshoot.
Earth Overshoot Day is an estimate, not an exact date, explains Global Footprint on its website. “It’s not possible to determine with 100 percent accuracy the day we bust our ecological budget. Adjustments of the date that we go into overshoot are due to revised calculations, not ecological advances on the part of humanity.”
Global Footprint Network and its partners are working with organizations, governments and financial institutions worldwide to help them make decisions aligned with ecological reality.