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全球暖化升溫 美西野火燒不盡

2006年07月17日
ENS美國加州,聖伯納汀諾市報導;劉文彥、丁秋仁編譯;莫聞審校

美國加州中部野火四處亂竄,截至12日止已焚毀拓荒鎮、火鳥高地及岩之緣等多處家園。粗估至少1,500位居民與同數建築物遭受威脅,此地區深具歷史意義,多部懷舊西部電影皆於此拍攝而成。設置於猶卡谷地社區中心之疏散中心正著手進行疏散作業。

大約2,500名消防人員與延燒廣達6,000英畝的熊熊烈焰搏鬥,但由於風勢強大助長火勢的蔓延,陡峭難以到達的火場地形亦妨礙了火場的封鎖作業,消防署通報此次為超級大火狀況。目前有4個人受傷,其中2名為消防人員。

近年來西部森林火災每每造成廣袤土地遭焚毁的慘重災情,上百戶住家遭災,自然資源更被破壞殆盡,因此社會大眾與政壇均非常關切。為了撲滅森林火災,每年消防支出經常超過10億美元。

根據一項由亞利桑那大學以及斯克雷普斯海洋研究所(Scripps Institution of Oceanography,SIO)的科學家們所進行的一項新研究指出,全球暖化是自1980年代末期以來橫跨美國西部大型野火頻仍發生的原因之一。

這份刊登在近期《科學》期刊上的新報告指出,氣候變化是最近森林大火頻傳的主要原因,而非撲滅大火政策失當以及森林過於茂密的問題。

斯克雷普斯學海洋研究院的凱原(Cayan)、威斯特林(Anthony Westerling) 以及希達哥(Hugo Hidalgo)以及亞利桑那大學的史威特南(Tom Swetnam)收集了從1970年到2003年間,發生於美國西部林務局及國家公園管理處範圍內,延燒面積超過1,000英畝以上的1,166次森林大火的廣泛綜合性資料,共同針對近期森林大火活動的變化做系統性的分析記錄。

為了調查氣候變遷究竟在其間扮演著什麼樣的角色,科學家比較在這34年間的融雪時機以及春天和夏天的溫度。

史威特南指出:「我們證實了氣候暖化和早春現象和森林大火的發生頻率緊密相關,大多數人認為氣候變遷和生態系的反應是50至100年後的事。但事實絕非如此,在森林生態系統中它以森林大火的方式在發生中」。

研究者認為,大規模具毀滅性的森林大火頻率的增加將改變森林的組成並降低樹木的生長密度,美國西部森林的角色恰似一個儲存著美國所有碳總含量的20%到40%的「碳槽」,藉由森林大火將之轉化成大氣中不斷增加的二氧化碳。

Global Warming Linked to Increase in Western U.S. Wildfires
SAN BERNADINO, California, July 12, 2006 (ENS)

A runaway wildfire has destroyed several homes today in the central California areas of Pioneertown, Flamingo Heights, and Rim Rock. At least 1,500 residences and an equal number of other structures are threatened and evacuations are ongoing from the historic area where many old-time Westerns were filmed. An evacuation Center has been set up at the Yucca Valley Community Center.

Some 2,500 firefighters are battling the 6,000 acre blaze, but high winds and steep, inaccessible terrain are impeding containment efforts, and fire officials report extreme fire behavior. Four people have been injured, including two firefighters.

Western wildfires have attracted broad public and political attention in recent years due to the severity and expanse of the areas they have consumed, hundreds of homes burned and devastating damage to natural resources. Fire-fighting expenditures for wildfires now regularly exceed one billion dollars per year.

Global warming is partly responsible for an increase in numbers of large wildfires across the Western United States since the late 1980s, according to new research by scientists with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the University of Arizona.

The new findings, published in the current issue of the journal "Science," point to climate change, not fire suppression policies and forest accumulation, as the primary driver of recent increases in large forest fires.

In the most systematic analysis to date of recent changes in forest fire activity, Cayan, together with Anthony Westerling and Hugo Hidalgo of Scripps and Tom Swetnam of the University of Arizona, compiled a comprehensive time series of 1,166 forest wildfires of at least 1,000 acres that had occurred between 1970 and 2003 from wildfire data covering western U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service lands.

To investigate what role climate might play, the scientists compared the time series, the timing of snowmelt and spring and summer temperatures for the same 34 years.

"We're showing warming and earlier springs tying in with large forest fire frequencies," Swetnam said. "Lots of people think climate change and the ecological responses are 50 to 100 years away. But it's not 50 to 100 years away - it's happening now in forest ecosystems through fire."

The authors conclude that the increased frequency of large and devastating wildfires may change forest composition and reduce tree densities, transforming the role of western U.S. forests as a storage "sink" for sequestering some 20 to 40 percent of all U.S. carbon to a source for increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.