準備迎接熱浪來襲!英國氣候科學家在全世界第一個短期全球暖化預測中表示,地球溫度在未來2年間將維持穩定,但從2014年之後,溫度將會劇烈上升。
透過強大的電腦模擬預測,英國氣象局哈德利中心(Hadley Center)預估,在2009年之後至少有一半的機率全球年均溫會超越目前紀錄中平均溫度最高的1998年;而2014年全球平均氣溫可能比2004年增加攝氏0.3度(華氏0.54度)。
預測指出過去1個世紀以來全球溫度上升了0.8℃(1.44℉),然而現在只要10年,就能使地球溫度上升達過去1個世紀的一半。
該項報告10日在《科學》期刊中發表,報告預測指出,在東南太平洋有一股自然的冷流讓全球暖化趨緩,但這股冷流即將結束。
Get ready for the heat. In the world's first near-term global warming forecast, British climate scientists say the planet's temperature will plateau for two years and then rise sharply through 2014.
Using powerful computer models, scientists at the British meteorological service's Hadley Center predict that at least half of the years after 2009 will exceed temperatures during 1998, the warmest year currently on record. The year 2014 is likely to be 0.3 Celsius (0.54 Fahrenheit) warmer than 2004, the Met Office scientists predict.
This forecast means that while it has taken a century for the global temperature to rise 0.8℃ (1.44℉) it will take only 10 years for the planet to heat up half again as much.
Published in the journal "Science," today, the forecast indicates that a natural cooling trend in the eastern and southern Pacific Ocean has kept global warming in check, but that trend is about to end.
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