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專家警告H1N1可能在南半球發生突變

2009年05月27日
摘譯自2009年5月24日ENS瑞士,日内瓦報導;張桂芳編譯;蔡麗伶審校

到紐約的遊客做好防護H1N1工作聯合國世衛組織(WHO)總幹事陳馮富珍警告全球的衛生當局必須提高警覺,預防今年冬季新型H1N1流感與季節性流感病毒結合,在南半球擴散開來。

總幹事5月22日在日内瓦世界衛生大會(WHA)閉幕演説中表示 「流感病毒在目前冬季的氣溫下特別活躍,甚至可能上演基因突變的戯碼。」

新型流感爆發後一個月,陳馮富珍說,世衛認爲疫情會在已爆發和尚未發現疫情的國家内繼續延燒。截至5月22日上午,WHO的數據顯示已有43個國家正式提報12,022件H1N1病毒感染疫情,包括86人死亡案例。

該病毒已開始出現在南半球如:阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥倫比亞、秘魯、澳洲、紐西蘭等地,每個國家都只發現幾個案例。目前非洲還沒有爆發任何病例或大規模感染事件。

美國是疫情(經證實)案件最多的國家,計有6,552件,死亡人數9人。墨西哥居次位,計有3,892件,死亡人數75人。根據WHO的報告,墨西哥城是嚴重病例和死亡人數最多的國家,但是流感病毒已經不如之前活躍。

WHO專家不認爲會有嚴重或致命疫情急劇上升的可能,但陳馮富珍說,發展中國家「應該做好應付遠多於目前小量病例的準備。」

不過,陳馮富珍說,維持警戒等級5級(按1-6等級分法)意味著大規模病毒人傳人的社區傳染主要仍局限於單一地理區域,在此指的是北美地區。

警戒等級6的大流行階段,特點是除了符合WHO 界定的5級條件外,還在其他WHO地區,至少一個國家以上出現社區傳染的疫情。也就是説,一旦發佈進入第六級警戒,意味著一場大規模的全球性流行病正在各地蔓延開來。

WHO助理總幹事福田敬二5月22日與記者進行視訊時表示,WHO正在研究發佈等級6級的新條件。

他說,「從一開始,我們就強調並指出,我們對病毒所知有限,也不清楚將如何演變。總之,我們正游走於避免製造無謂恐慌和過於安逸自滿之間。」

H1N1 Flu Could Mutate in Southern Hemisphere, Experts Warn
GENEVA, Switzerland, May 24, 2009 (ENS)

Health authorities around the world must be vigilant as the new H1N1 influenza virus meets seasonal flu viruses circulating in the Southern Hemisphere during the winter season, warns the head of the UN World Health Organization.

"The current winter season gives influenza viruses an opportunity to intermingle and possibly exchange their genetic material in unpredictable ways," WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said Friday in her closing remarks to the World Health Assembly in Geneva.

One month after the outbreak of the new flu, Dr. Chan said WHO expects it to continue spreading to new countries and within nations already affected. As of Saturday morning, WHO figures show that 43 countries have officially reported 12,022 cases of H1N1 infection, including 86 deaths.

The virus is beginning to appear in Southern Hemisphere countries, with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru as well as Australia and New Zealand each reporting a few cases. There have been no large scale infections and no cases have been reported in Africa.

The greatest number of cases has been confirmed in the United States, which reports 6,552 cases with nine deaths. Mexico reports the next greatest number of cases - 3,892 cases with 75 deaths. In Mexico City, which had the largest numbers of severe cases and deaths, flu activity is decreasing, WHO reports.

WHO experts do not predict a dramatic jump of severe or fatal infections, but Dr. Chan said countries in the developing world "should prepare to see more than the present small number of severe cases .

"Still, Dr. Chan said that the pandemic alert level remains at Phase 5 on a six-point warning scale, meaning that sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus on a community level is mostly restricted to a single geographic region, in this case North America.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. A declaration that the world has entered Phase 6 would mean that a full-scale global pandemic is underway.

On a teleconference with reporters Friday, WHO Assistant Director-General Dr. Keiji Fukuda said new criteria for a Phase 6 declaration are under consideration.

Dr. Fukuda said, "From the outset we've emphasized that there is much that we don't understand and much that will evolve. The bottom line is that we are trying to walk a fine line between not raising panic and also not becoming complacent."

作者

蔡麗伶(LiLing Barricman)

In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.