美國國家科學院13日發表報告,指出布希政府的氣候研究計畫雖幫助科學家釐清氣候暖化的基礎知識,卻未把減緩或適應氣候變化所需的迫切資訊傳達給社會大眾。
審查委員會提出警告與批評,認為氣候變遷科學計畫(CCSP)由於缺乏有效領導與預算支持而進度緩慢,也沒有適當地與權益相關人溝通研究內容。
布希政府於2002年成立CCSP計畫,以幫助13個聯邦機構進行氣候變化研究。但計畫目標模糊,從開始便遭受批評,也反應布希總統個人未接受科學界共識,對於使用化石燃料等人為活動造成的氣候影響,仍抱持懷疑態度。
政治力介入干預的指控也使CCSP形象受損。長期擔任氣候計畫研究員的彼爾茲(Rick Piltz)便為了抗議布希政府刪改氣候科學文件,於2005年請辭。
評估報告中雖稱許該計畫「在紀錄過去數十年的氣候變化,以及從觀測所得氣候變化中確認人為影響等方面,有良好的進展」,但整體而言,審查委員的意見仍以批評居多。
報告指出,CCPS每年17億美元預算中,僅有1.5%-2%(2500萬-3500萬美元)用於研究氣候變遷的社會衝擊上,例如適應與減緩氣候變化的策略等。該計畫也未就氣候變化對美國農業、水資源與健康的影響完成調查評估,而這些資訊對州政府與地方資源管理者、立法人員及一般大眾都極為重要。
審查委員更批評,布希政府預定刪減監測地球相關計畫的預算,「可能是對CCSP最後能否成功最大的一項威脅。」
國家科學院2007年1月發表的另一份報告就警告,美國環境衛星上的科學儀器超過半數將在2010年前停止運轉。有數個預定的衛星發射計畫遭布希政府拖延或取消,老舊衛星也因預算問題而建議不予替換。 委員會強調,官僚體系延宕是CCSP無法完成氣候相關報告的主要原因。該計畫2006年應發表的21份報告,至今只完成2份。
線上閱讀「美國氣候變遷計畫進度評估:方法與初步結果」報告全文。
The Bush administration's climate research program has helped scientists clarify some basic facts about global warming, but has done little to provide much-needed information about how society might mitigate or adapt to the changing climate, a National Academy of Sciences committee said today.
The independent panel warned that the progress of the program is threatened by a lack of strong leadership and budgetary authority. The panel also criticized the Climate Change Science Program, CCSP, for failing to adequately communicate its research with stakeholders.
The Bush administration created the CCSP in 2002 to facilitate climate change research across 13 federal agencies. From the outset, critics said the president's vision for CCSP lacked focus and reflected his skepticism of the scientific consensus that human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are having a major impact on the climate.
The program has been marred by allegations of political interference. Rick Piltz, who had worked for a decade as a senior associate with USGCRP and CCSP, resigned in 2005 in protest of the Bush administration's editing of climate science documents.
The new report praised some aspects of the program, pointing out that "good progress has been made in documenting the climate changes of the past few decades and in unraveling the anthropogenic influences on the observed climate changes." But the panel's overall evaluation of the program is largely critical.
The report found that of CCSP's annual budget of $1.7 billion, only $25 million to $35 million is devoted to studying the social impacts of climate change, including adaptation and mitigation strategies. The program has failed to complete national assessments of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water and health. Such information is vital for state and local resource managers and policymakers, as well as for the general population, the panel said.
The committee called the Bush administration's plan to cut funding for programs that monitor the Earth "perhaps the single greatest threat to the future success of CCSP."
In January a different National Academy panel warned that half the scientific instruments on the nation's environmental satellites are expected to stop working by 2010. The Bush administration has delayed or canceled a number of planned satellite missions and recommended not replacing some aging satellites for budgetary reasons.
The panel highlighted bureaucratic delays as the main reason for CCSP's failure to deliver its promised reports on climate science. The 21 reports were all supposed to have been released by 2006, but only two have been completed.
Copies of "Evaluating Progress Of The U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods And Preliminary Results" will be available at http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11934
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