根據美國國家研究委員會（NRC）7月17日報告，政府需要提供鉅額補助款，才能使氫燃料車成為未來國內一項主要交通工具；該報告指出即使在最樂觀的情況下，2020年之前美國只會有2百萬輛氫燃料車－－還不到汽車和卡車整體數量的1%。
報告指出，政府在接下來15年需投入至少550億美金，才能使氫燃料車堪與傳統汽車競爭；政府自2004年已投入8億7900萬。報告執筆者同時也是委員會主席認為對於政府資助氫燃料車，應以同樣規格和其他補助款衡量相比。
若持續目前的氫燃料車資助和政策方向，聯邦政府同期對生質燃料的補助款將達1600億，Exxon石油研究發展部前副總裁、現任調查委員主席瑞米吉（Mike Ramage）這份應美國能源部要求的249頁報告中強調，政府補助可加速氫燃料車在本世紀中葉前廣為使用。
氫燃料的魅力在於能夠轉移美國對石油的倚賴，從而減低溫室氣體排放，因為氫燃料的唯一副產品是水。氫燃料的好處，瑞米吉說道：「短期或許不顯著，但長期下來將有明顯效果。」
倘若未來15年能克服經濟和技術問題，委員會看好氫燃料科技大幅成長，氫燃料車便可望在2035年達到6千萬輛，在2050年成長到2億輛。屆時可在2050年減低美國交通運輸60-70%的石油倚賴。
目前氫氣生產仍有侷限，且價格昂貴；儘管主要汽車製造廠商紛紛投入相關研究，氫燃料電池仍需解決保存、價格、可靠性和安全性等問題。最大的難題恐怕是高售價，和將氫氣運送到全國各地加油站之複雜度。
報告建議政府將補助款用於替換半數公務汽車和卡車為氫燃料車，協助消費者關切相關科技發展，使其得以負擔氫燃料車。報告還指出，業者不願意在氫氣車銷量達到一定數字前投資加油站，同樣的，汽車業者無法在加油站夠普及前售出太多氫燃料車。
報告預估聯邦政府將投入50億研發經費，另外投資100億於生產氫氣。委員會注意到氫氣車對環境最友善的關鍵在於氫氣生產，其從煤或其他化石燃料製程中，排出較少溫室氣體。
減少石油倚賴和降低溫室氣體排放最可行的方案恐怕是同步發展生質燃料車、省油汽車和氫燃料車。欲一睹國家研究委員會報告全文「替代交通科技的轉換期：氫氣」，請按此連結。
It will take massive subsidies from the U.S. government to make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles a significant part of the nation's transportation future, according to a National Research Council report released Thursday. The study finds that even under a best-case scenario only about two million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be on American roads by 2020, less than one percent of the nation's estimated total number of cars and trucks.
Achieving that goal would require the government to pump at least $55 billion in subsidies over the next 15 years to make hydrogen vehicles cost competitive with conventional cars and trucks, the report concluded. Current government spending has equaled some $879 million since 2004.
But the chair of the committee that wrote the report said the suggested government funding should be put in perspective with other subsidies.
If current funding and policies continue, the federal subsidy for corn-based ethanol over the same time period is on pace to reach $160 billion, said Mike Ramage, a former vice president for research and development at Exxon Mobil and chair of the 17-member panel. "We need durable, substantial and sustainable government help to make this happen, just as there is for ethanol," he said.
The 249 page report, which was requested by the U.S. Energy Department, contends that the funding may well be worth it as it could set the stage for accelerated adoption of hydrogen vehicles by mid-century.
The allure of hydrogen fuel cells is their potential to help shift the U.S. transportation sector away from oil and to cut emissions linked to climate change. The only byproduct from a hydrogen fuel cell is water.
The environmental benefits of hydrogen would be "less in the early years but would be dominant" over a longer time period, Ramage told reporters on a telephone briefing.
The committee's best case scenario envisions that if the technical and economic obstacles are overcome in the next 15 years, the growth of the technology could accelerate dramatically.
It suggests the number of hydrogen vehicles on U.S. roads could jump to nearly 60 million in 2035 and to 200 million by 2050.
This shift could reduce the U.S. transportation sector's oil consumption some 60 to 70 percent by 2050.
There is little existing capacity for hydrogen production, which remains expensive, and although major automakers are dabbling with the technology, fuel cells still face challenges of storage, cost, reliability and safety.
And the most significant hurdle could be the high cost and logistical complexity of distributing hydrogen to fueling stations across the nation.
The report suggests that government funding be used to purchase hydrogen vehicles to replace about half of the government's fleet of cars and trucks and to help consumers keen on the technology afford the new vehicles.
The report notes that companies are reluctant to spend much money on fueling stations until a significant numbers of hydrogen cars have been sold. Similarly, automakers are unlikely to sell many vehicles until an adequate number of fueling stations are available.
The report also estimates about $5 billion in federal funds be spent on research and development and $10 billion be earmarked for hydrogen production.
The committee noted that a key to the environmental benefits of hydrogen cars is how the fuel is produced. Hydrogen produced from coal or other fossil fuels lessens the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
The greatest possible reductions in oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions would occur if biofuels, fuel-efficient conventional vehicles and hydrogen vehicles are all pursued simultaneously, he explained.
To find the National Research Council report, "Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies: A Focus on Hydrogen," click here.
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