美氣象學家預測:今夏將有9颶風侵襲大西洋岸 | 環境資訊中心

美氣象學家預測:今夏將有9颶風侵襲大西洋岸

2007年04月09日
摘譯自2007年4月4日ENS美國,科羅拉多州,科林斯堡報導;蔡秦怡編譯;蔡麗伶審校

美國空軍在大西洋的颱風眼中偵測 (Photo courtesy U.S. Air Force)美國科羅拉多州立大學的颶風預測團隊表示,美國大西洋海灣地區即將於6月1日開始進入颶風活躍期,但與2005年同期相較,將和緩許多。

氣象學者葛瑞(William Gray)與克洛茲巴哈(Phil Klotzbach)預計6-9月將有17個被命名的暴風雨會出現在大西洋海灣地區,其中9個將形成颶風,且這9個颶風當中有5個將會形成強烈颶風,依照薩非爾/辛普森颶風量級表(the Saffir/Simpson scale),級別為3到5級不等,而這5個強烈颶風的風速將達到每小時111英哩,甚至更高。

克洛茲巴哈表示,「颶風活躍的季節將至,但應較2004年與2005年來的和緩。根據我們最新的預測報告顯示,強烈颶風登陸美國沿岸的機率約74%,比上個世紀的平均值52%來的高。」

此一團隊預測的依據是以全球海洋與大氣狀況為前提,例如聖嬰現象、海表面溫度以及海平面氣壓等,這些現象在過去颶風活躍與否的季節裡,其狀況對於未來類似的趨勢提供了極有意義的資訊。

Nine Hurricanes Predicted for Atlantic Basin This Season
FORT COLLINS, Colorado, April 4, 2007 (ENS)

熱帶氣象計畫成員葛瑞與克洛茲巴哈(Photo courtesy CSU)A very active hurricane season is in store for the U.S. Atlantic Basin starting June 1, but not as active as the 2005 season, according to a team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University.

Meteorologists William Gray and Phil Klotzbach anticipate 17 named storms in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 30, of which nine will become hurricanes. Of those nine, the team predicts that five will develop into intense or major hurricanes - rated category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale - with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

"We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons," said Klotzbach. "Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 74 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent."

The team's forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.