2005年大西洋颶風季在創下史上單年數量最多與威力最強記錄後，總算於今日（30日）結束。美國氣象局官員預測，往後十年，超越平均值之颶風活動將繼續襲擊脆弱的大西洋及加勒比沿海岸地區，然而，肇因並非為全球暖化。
2005年颶風季中包含26個風暴，其中13個是颶風，並有7個是屬於第三級或更強的強烈颶風。
美國國家海洋暨大氣總署(NOAA)的勞滕巴赫爾（Conrad Lautenbacher）說：「這次的颶風季打破了維持數十年之久的記錄－發生最多的風暴、最多的颶風以及最多5級以上的暴風。」
卡崔納颶風是這些巨獸中最慓悍的一個。8月29日它侵襲灣岸地區，是美國中史上自1928年以來危害最鉅大的颶風，至少有1300人死於這場風災，而且官方指出死傷數字仍在擴大中。
勞滕巴赫爾在華盛頓的一場會談中指出：「幾乎可以說這次的颶風季是國家現代所遭逢最具毁滅性的災難。」
氣象官員說明他們針對大西洋風暴活動所做的分析，指出現今正處於持續20至30年或更久的所謂《數十年循環》期間內，內在相關聯的一組關鍵的大氣和海洋條件正好在非洲和加勒比海地區蘊釀這些巨獸型的風暴，顛峰期就在八到十月間。
NOAA的研究指出，自1995年以來此熱帶數十年信息造成日益增多的大西洋颶風活動，而且該活動與溫室暖化現象並無直接關聯。
然而全球暖化現象造成海洋表面溫度升高，颶風本身需要溫暖的海水來增加及支撐。颶風形成的原因為－水溫上升到超出華氏80度造成大氣對流而將空氣中的濕氣往上拋升10英哩到大氣層內。
在2005颶風季中，海水溫度比過往平均值高出華氏2到3度，因此有助於颶風的形成。
美國氣象局局長、前空軍準將強森（David Johnson）指出：「今年大西洋海灣地區發生超出相當於整整二個颶風季的颶風數量，證實了的活躍大氣循環現象。因為我們目前身處於活躍的循環年代，認知到將有數量龐大的颶風發生，侵襲土地的機會也會持續增加是很重要的。 」
NOAA氣候預測中心的首席氣象學者貝爾（Jerry Bell）指出：「因為我們在為期11年的颶風活躍期內，可預見的是，高頻率的颶風活動在未來幾年內都會持續出現，重要地是，颶風登陸的機會在未來十年內也會保持下去甚至還會更多。」
勞滕巴赫爾則說：「可預見的未來數年內將有比過往還頻繁的颶風活動持續襲擊脆弱的大西洋及加勒比沿海岸地區，當務之急就是結合國際間的科學研究計劃。超過40個國家及25個國際組織正努力建立一個全球對地觀測綜合系統(GEOSS)，做為整個地球氣候和環境資訊的基礎資料中心，為了能更加了解和預測地球的單一系統運作情形。」
The 2005 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season comes to an end today after smashing records for the largest number and most sever storms in history. Weather officials are predicting that greater than average hurricane activity will pound vulnerable Atlantic and Caribbean coastal areas for the next decade, but, they say, not as a result of global warning.
The 2005 season included 26 named storms, including 13 hurricanes in which seven were major, classed as Category 3 or higher.
"This hurricane season shattered records that have stood for decades – most named storms, most hurricanes and most Category 5 storms," said Conrad Lautenbacher of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
One hurricane stood out as the biggest monster of all. Hurricane Katrina which destroyed the Gulf Coast on August 29 was the deadliest hurricane to strike the United States since 1928. At least 1,300 deaths are blamed on Katrina, and officials say the count is still likely to rise.
"Arguably, it was the most devastating hurricane season the country has experienced in modern times," Lautenbacher said at a news conference in Washington.
Weather officials say their analysis shows that Atlantic Ocean storm activity is now in what they call a "multi-decadal cycle" that can last 20 to 30 years or even longer. During this cycle an inter-related set of key atmospheric and oceanic conditions are just right to brew up monster storms between Africa and the Caribbean Sea during the peak months of the season, August through October.
NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, and "is not related to greenhouse warming," the agency said.
Yet global warming has raised sea surface temperatures, and hurricanes need warm ocean waters to strengthen and sustain them. Hurricanes do not form unless water temperatures are at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit - hot enough to create atmospheric convection that casts moisture 10 miles up into the atmosphere.
Ocean waters were generally two to three degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average during the 2005 season, which favored stronger hurricanes.
"Evidence of this active cycle was demonstrated this year as the Atlantic Basin produced the equivalent of more than two entire hurricane seasons over the course of one. Because we are in an active hurricane era, it's important to recognize that with a greater number of hurricanes comes increasing odds of one striking land," said retired Air Force Brigadier General David Johnson, director of the National Weather Service.
"Because we're 11 years into an active hurricane era," said Jerry Bell, lead meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, "it's reasonable to expect ongoing high levels of hurricane activity for many years to come, and importantly, ongoing high levels of hurricane landfalls for the next decade and perhaps more."
The prospect that greater than average hurricane activity will pound vulnerable Atlantic and Caribbean coastal areas for years to come makes a joint international scientific project all the more urgent, says Lautenbacher. More than 40 nations and 25 international organizations are working to establish a Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) as a center of climatic and environmental data from the entire planet to form the basis for better understanding and predicting how Earth functions as a single system.
