美國氣象局局長、前空軍準將強森（David Johnson）指出：「今年大西洋海灣地區發生超出相當於整整二個颶風季的颶風數量，證實了的活躍大氣循環現象。因為我們目前身處於活躍的循環年代，認知到將有數量龐大的颶風發生，侵襲土地的機會也會持續增加是很重要的。 」
The 2005 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season comes to an end today after smashing records for the largest number and most sever storms in history. Weather officials are predicting that greater than average hurricane activity will pound vulnerable Atlantic and Caribbean coastal areas for the next decade, but, they say, not as a result of global warning.
The 2005 season included 26 named storms, including 13 hurricanes in which seven were major, classed as Category 3 or higher.
"This hurricane season shattered records that have stood for decades – most named storms, most hurricanes and most Category 5 storms," said Conrad Lautenbacher of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
One hurricane stood out as the biggest monster of all. Hurricane Katrina which destroyed the Gulf Coast on August 29 was the deadliest hurricane to strike the United States since 1928. At least 1,300 deaths are blamed on Katrina, and officials say the count is still likely to rise.
"Arguably, it was the most devastating hurricane season the country has experienced in modern times," Lautenbacher said at a news conference in Washington.
Weather officials say their analysis shows that Atlantic Ocean storm activity is now in what they call a "multi-decadal cycle" that can last 20 to 30 years or even longer. During this cycle an inter-related set of key atmospheric and oceanic conditions are just right to brew up monster storms between Africa and the Caribbean Sea during the peak months of the season, August through October.
NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, and "is not related to greenhouse warming," the agency said.
Yet global warming has raised sea surface temperatures, and hurricanes need warm ocean waters to strengthen and sustain them. Hurricanes do not form unless water temperatures are at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit - hot enough to create atmospheric convection that casts moisture 10 miles up into the atmosphere.
Ocean waters were generally two to three degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average during the 2005 season, which favored stronger hurricanes.
"Evidence of this active cycle was demonstrated this year as the Atlantic Basin produced the equivalent of more than two entire hurricane seasons over the course of one. Because we are in an active hurricane era, it's important to recognize that with a greater number of hurricanes comes increasing odds of one striking land," said retired Air Force Brigadier General David Johnson, director of the National Weather Service.
"Because we're 11 years into an active hurricane era," said Jerry Bell, lead meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, "it's reasonable to expect ongoing high levels of hurricane activity for many years to come, and importantly, ongoing high levels of hurricane landfalls for the next decade and perhaps more."
The prospect that greater than average hurricane activity will pound vulnerable Atlantic and Caribbean coastal areas for years to come makes a joint international scientific project all the more urgent, says Lautenbacher. More than 40 nations and 25 international organizations are working to establish a Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) as a center of climatic and environmental data from the entire planet to form the basis for better understanding and predicting how Earth functions as a single system.