2010全球溫室氣體排放再創新高 | 環境資訊中心

2010全球溫室氣體排放再創新高

2011年06月07日
摘譯自2011年5月30日ENS德國,波昂報導;段譽豪編譯;莫聞審校

美國喬治亞州舍雷爾(Scherer)燃煤電廠,發電量3,564 百萬瓦。圖片來自:喬治亞電力公司。根據國際能源總署(IEA)5月30日發表的最新評估報告表示,2010年全球的溫室氣體排放量創下歷史新高。不斷增加的排放將全球氣候狀況推向災難性的危險邊緣──更多的極端氣候、海平面上升、冰川融化、乾旱、野火、物種滅絕以及熱帶疾病的傳播。

IEA估計,由現有以及正在興建的發電廠來看,2020年時有80%的排放量確定來自電力部門。

IEA首席經濟學家比羅爾(Fatih Birol)博士是該機構「年度世界能源展望」報告(WEO)的負責人。他表示:「顯著的二氧化碳排放增加以及未來因為基礎建設投資所必然增加的排放量,使我們希望限制全球升溫在攝氏2度以內的目標受到嚴重打擊。」

在2009年全球金融危機造成的驟降之後,二氧化碳的排放量估計值攀升至306億噸,這比2008年的紀錄293億噸更高出了5%。

新的數據顯示,以燃料方面來說,2010年的二氧化碳排放中,估計有44%來自燃燒煤炭,36%來自燃燒石油,20%來自天然氣。

聯合國2010年的坎昆氣候變遷會談中,各國領袖達成了將溫度上升幅度,定在工業化前攝氏2度以內水準的共識。

為了實現這一目標,溫室氣體在大氣中的長期濃度必須限制在450ppm 二氧化碳當量以內。這個數字只比2000年的430ppm 高5%。

IEA的「世界能源展望」計畫已訂定了所謂的450方案,是一個在具排放指標國家共識的基礎之上,在2020年達成上述目標的能源途徑。

為達成此一目標,全球2020年與能源相關的排放量不能超過320億噸。這表示未來的10年內,排放量總量必須比2009至2010年間的排放量更低。

比爾羅博士說,在限制二氧化碳的排放之下,要同時改善並維持各國人民的生活水準,這樣的挑戰之大前所未見。

IEA估計,2010年全球有40%排放量來自經濟合作發展組織(OECD)國家,與2009年相比,這些國家當時的排放量只佔了25%。

以中國和印度為首的非OECD國家中,他們的排放量隨著經濟成長加速而大大的增加。然而若按人均計算,OECD國家的人均排放量為10噸,中國與印度則分別為5.8與5.1噸。

如果全球的增溫幅度要控制在攝氏2度以內,由發電部門減少二氧化碳是一個必須克服的關鍵性挑戰。

IEA於5月27日在巴黎發表的一本新報告《2011氣侯與電力年報:數據與分析》指出,要採取一些重要的政策與科技措施,以達成電力部門減碳的目標。這本書提供了最新且最具權威的數據,二氧化碳相關統計,以及涵括全世界10個區域的電力部門。

解決二氧化碳上升的方法可以由以下方式達成:

  • 提高照明、冷暖氣、特定工業用戶、以及資料中心等資訊科技的能源效率。
  • 採用再生能源或核能來產生電力。
  • 碳的捕捉與儲存──這是一類用以減少大型二氧化碳排放源的技術,例如化石燃料或生質能的發電。

根據這份報告,利用這些無碳排放的選項,可以在2035年以前達成47%的減排目標,使全球增溫幅度小於攝氏2度,控制大氣中的二氧化碳濃度在450ppm之內。

這份名為《2011氣侯與電力年報:數據與分析》的報告,是IEA解決電力在全球氣候變遷中所扮演角色的新系列報告。

報告指出,可再生能源是增長最快速的電力來源,但是化石燃料仍然是全球電力輸出的主力,其中煤炭佔了41%,第二位的天然氣則佔了16%。

國際能源署(IEA)是一個獨立組織,旨在為28個會員國以及其他國家,確保可靠、負擔得起以及潔淨的能源。IEA成立於1973至1974年間的石油危機時期,其初衷為幫助各國間協調,通過釋放市場中的緊急石油庫存,以共同應對石油供應短缺。雖然這仍是該機構的關鍵工作,但IEA已經演進並擴大規模,以提供研究、統計、分析以及建議。

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Jump to Record Levels
BONN, Germany, May 30, 2011 (ENS)

Greenhouse gas emissions from world energy generation in 2010 were the highest in history, according to the latest estimates from the International Energy Agency, released today. The burgeoning emissions push the global climate closer to the danger point for catastrophic effects - more extreme weather, rising sea levels, glacier melt, floods, drought, wildfire, species extinctions and the spread of tropical diseases.

The International Energy Agency has estimated that 80 percent of projected emissions from the power sector in 2020 are already locked in, as they will come from power plants that are currently in place or under construction today.

"This significant increase in CO2 emissions and the locking in of future emissions due to infrastructure investments represent a serious setback to our hopes of limiting the global rise in temperature to no more than two degrees Celsius," said Dr. Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, who oversees the agency's annual World Energy Outlook.

After a dip in 2009 caused by the global financial crisis, emissions of carbon dioxide, CO2, are estimated to have climbed to a record 30.6 gigatonnes. This is five percent higher than in the previous record year 2008, when levels reached 29.3 Gt.

In terms of fuels, 44 percent of the estimated CO2 emissions in 2010 came from burning coal, 36 percent from burning oil, and 20 percent from natural gas, the new data show.

"Governments are meeting next week in Bonn to prepare for the next major international climate conference to be held in Durban at the end of the year," said Figueres. "It is clear that they need to push the world further down the right track to avoid dangerous climate change."

At the UN climate change talks in Cancun in 2010, world leaders agreed a target of limiting temperature increase to two degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels.

For this goal to be achieved, the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere must be limited to around 450 parts per million of CO2-equivalent.

This is only a five percent increase compared to an estimated 430 parts per million in 2000.

The IEA's 2010 World Energy Outlook set out the 450 Scenario, an energy pathway consistent with achieving this goal, based on the emissions targets countries have agreed to reach by 2020.

For this pathway to be achieved, global energy-related emissions in 2020 must not be greater than 32 Gt.This means that over the next 10 years, emissions must rise less in total than they did between 2009 and 2010.

The challenge of improving and maintaining quality of life for people in all countries while limiting CO2 emissions has never been greater, he said.

While the IEA estimates that 40 percent of global emissions came from OECD countries in 2010, these countries only accounted for 25 percent of emissions growth compared to 2009.

Non-OECD countries, led by China and India, saw much stronger increases in emissions as their economic growth accelerated.

Yet on a per capita basis, OECD countries collectively emitted 10 tonnes, compared with 5.8 tonnes for China, and 1.5 tonnes in India.

Removing CO2 emissions from electricity generation is a key challenge that must be overcome if the rise in global temperatures is to be limited to two degrees Celsius.

A new book from the International Energy Agency released in Paris on Friday addresses some of the most important policy and technology steps needed to achieve such "decarbonization" of the electricity sector. It provides authoritative information on progress to date as well as statistics related to CO2 and the electricity sector across 10 regions of the world.

Solutions to rising CO2 emissions can be found in:

  • Enhancing energy efficiency in lighting, heating and cooling, specific industrial uses and information technologies such as data centers
  • Powering electricity with renewable and nuclear sources of energy
  • Carbon capture and storage - a group of technologies used to reduce emissions from large CO2 sources such as fossil fuel or biomass power generation

Using these carbon-free options can meet 47 percent of the emissions savings required by 2035 to limit the global increase in temperature to two degrees Celsius by bringing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million, according to the report.

The report, "Climate & Electricity Annual 2011: Data and Analyses," is the first in a new series from the International Energy Agency that addresses the role of electricity in meeting climate change goals.

Renewables are the fastest growing source of electricity, the report says, but fossil fuels still dominate the global output of electricity, with coal accounting for 41 percent and natural gas ranking second with 16 percent.

The International Energy Agency is an independent organization that works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. Founded in response to the 1973-4 oil crisis, the IEA's initial role was to help countries coordinate a collective response to major disruptions in oil supply through the release of emergency oil stocks to the markets. While this continues to be a key aspect of its work, the agency has evolved and expanded to provide research, statistics, analysis and recommendations.

全文及圖片詳見:ENS報導