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有史以來最熱 2014年高溫再破紀錄

2015年01月22日
摘譯自2015年1月18日ENS美國,紐約報導;許祺景編譯;蔡麗伶審校

根據美國國家航空暨太空總署(NASA)和美國國家海洋暨大氣總署(NOAA)分別發佈的兩份研究報告,皆顯示出2014年是自從1880年有記錄以來,最熱的一年。

研究報告顯示,2014年是自1880年有記錄以來最熱的一年。(來源:NASA)

NASA:地球進入長期暖化階段

從1880年以來,由於排放到大氣中的二氧化碳不斷的增加,加上其他的人類活動,地表的平均溫度已經上升約攝氏0.8度。在過去30年間,暖化現象更為顯著。

有紀錄以來最熱的10年中,除了1998年之外,2000年以後的每一年幾乎都榜上有名。NASA戈達太空研究所(NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies,GISS)的科學家進行地表溫度分析之後,表示地球正處於長期的暖化趨勢中。

GISS是由美國戈達太空飛行中心(Goddard Space Flight Center)地學組所管理的NASA實驗室,並與紐約哥倫比亞大學的地球研究所和工程與應用科學學院合作。

NOAA:2014是有史以來最熱一年

16日,NOAA的科學家也發表一份與NASA各自獨立進行的研究報告,但他們也發現2014年為有記錄以來最熱的一年。

「2014年是高溫排行榜中最新進榜的一年。儘管每年溫度可能會受到混沌的天氣型態影響,但影響氣候變遷這種長期趨勢最主要的因素,仍是人類排放的溫室氣體。」GISS所長Gavin Schmidt表示。

儘管2014年的溫度仍然順著地球長期的暖化趨勢走,科學家仍希望看到因聖嬰現象或反聖嬰現象,而造成每年平均溫度震盪的現象。這些現象造成熱帶太平洋地區的增溫或降溫,在過去15年間被認為有減緩暖化趨勢的作用。

然而,2014年雖然是高溫年,卻沒有顯著的聖嬰現象或反聖嬰現象。

NASA科學使命理事會(Science Mission Directorate)副局長John Grunsfeld說:「長期的暖化趨勢以及2014年是最熱的一年,這兩項事實都一再強調了NASA把地球視為一個完整的系統來研究的重要性。尤其是要了解人類活動對地球所帶來的衝擊與影響。」

長期監測 地區溫差更受影響

NOAA首席科學家Richard Spinrad說:「我們以科學為後盾,提供決策者關於變動中的地球最即時也最可信的資料。我們監測氣候的變遷,以後大眾對這方面的需求只會不停的成長。」Spinrad說:「我們必須持續與NASA等機構合作,來觀測這些變化並提供社區復原所需要的資訊。」

GISS分析的數據來自6300個氣象站,有的位於船上,有的浮在海上測量海面的溫度,有的則位於南極的研究站測量溫度。

NASA的科學家以特殊的演算法來分析這些數據。此演算法將全球各觀測站的溫度差異,以及可能會產生誤差的都市熱島效應都列入考慮。

計算的結果顯示,全球目前的平均溫度將與1951年到1980年的基線期分道揚鑣。

NOAA的科學家發現,美國的中西部和東岸部分的州,在2014年異常寒冷,但阿拉斯加和其他3個西部的州(加州、亞利桑那州和內華達州)卻是有記錄以來最熱的一年,顯示相較於全球的溫度差異,地區性的溫度差異更易受到天氣動力學的影響。

英國高溫破1659年以來紀錄

英國的氣象辦公室(Met Office)發表了暫時性的全年統計數據,顯示2014年為英國從1910年以來最熱的一年,也是降水量第四多的一年。

英國的年均溫為攝氏9.9度,比1981-2010的平均高出攝氏1.1度,也打破2006年均溫9.7度的高溫紀錄。氣象辦公室寫道:「2014年是英格蘭中部溫度數據中最高的一年。英格蘭中部溫度從1659年開始記錄至今,是世界上時間最長的儀器記錄數據。」

這項記錄顯示,英國最熱的10年中,2002年之後就佔了8年。

18日由非營利組織Berkeley Earth發佈的另一份報告表示:「2014年全球包括陸地和海洋的均溫,都是從1850年有儀器記錄以來的最高溫。但是在攝氏0.05度的誤差範圍中,2014年的數據與2005年和2010年不相上下,嚴格說起來並不能算是創下新的高溫紀錄。」

Berkeley Earth主要的發現如下:

  • 對陸地而言,2014年是從1753年有記錄以來第四高溫的一年。
  • 對海洋而言,2014年是從1850年以來最高溫的一年,比第二高溫的2010年高出攝氏0.078度。
  • 對於美國本土而言,2014年為1850年以來第38高溫的年份(比平均高攝氏0.23度)
  • 但並非全球各地在2014年都是高溫。2014年在美國密西根州為排名第14冷的年份。(比1961到1990的平均溫度少攝氏1.12度)
  • 相反的,美國加州正處於嚴重乾旱中,2014年為到目前為止最高溫的一年(比平均溫度高攝氏1.92度)比先前的記錄高了攝氏0.76度。
  • 與往年均溫相比,德國高了攝氏2.1度,英國高了攝氏1.33度,瑞典高了攝氏2.23度,其他歐洲國家也幾乎都比往年的均溫還要高,整個歐洲大陸也高了攝氏1.69度。

總而言之,Berkeley Earth的科學家們認為,8.4%的地球表面和5.6%的陸地,都在2014年測到了有記錄以來的最高溫。0.11%的地球表面和0.03%的陸地,則測到了有記錄以來的最低溫。

測量的誤差非常小,在超過30,000個觀測站中以最佳的統計方法,在95%的信心水準下,誤差約攝氏0.05度。

Berkeley Earth表示:「即使如此,我們仍不易區別最高溫的一年。但這種種跡象清楚表示,地球在過去10年間的平均溫度有些微的改變,而且最高溫的10年皆發生在1998年以後。」

Earth Heating Up: 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record
NEW YORK, New York, January 18, 2015 (ENS)

The year 2014 ranks as Earth’s warmest since record keeping began in 1880, according to two separate analyses by scientists with two U.S. agencies – the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA.

The 10 warmest years on record, with the exception of 1998, have now occurred since 2000. This trend continues a long-term warming of the planet, according to an analysis of surface temperature measurements by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York.

“NASA is at the forefront of the scientific investigation of the dynamics of the Earth’s climate on a global scale,” said John Grunsfeld, associate administrator for the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

NASA monitors Earth’s vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites, as well as airborne and ground-based observation campaigns.

“The observed long-term warming trend and the ranking of 2014 as the warmest year on record reinforces the importance for NASA to study Earth as a complete system, and particularly to understand the role and impacts of human activity,” said Grunsfeld.

Since 1880, Earth’s average surface temperature has warmed by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius), a trend driven by the increase in carbon dioxide and other human emissions into the planet’s atmosphere. The majority of that warming has occurred in the past three decades.

“This is the latest in a series of warm years, in a series of warm decades. While the ranking of individual years can be affected by chaotic weather patterns, the long-term trends are attributable to drivers of climate change that right now are dominated by human emissions of greenhouse gases,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies, GISS.

While 2014 temperatures continue the planet’s long-term warming trend, scientists still expect to see year-to-year fluctuations in average global temperature caused by phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña. These phenomena warm or cool the tropical Pacific and are thought to have played a role in the flattening of the long-term warming trend over the past 15 years. But 2014’s record warmth occurred during an El Niño-neutral year.

In an independent analysis of the raw data, released Friday, NOAA scientists also found 2014 to be the warmest year on record.

“NOAA provides decision makers with timely and trusted science-based information about our changing world,” said Richard Spinrad, NOAA chief scientist. “As we monitor changes in our climate, demand for the environmental intelligence NOAA provides is only growing.”

“It’s critical that we continue to work with our partners, like NASA, to observe these changes and to provide the information communities need to build resiliency,” said Spinrad.

Regional differences in temperature are more strongly affected by weather dynamics than the global mean. For example, in the United States in 2014, parts of the Midwest and East Coast were unusually cool, while Alaska and three western states – California, Arizona and Nevada – experienced their warmest year on record, NOAA scientists found.

The GISS analysis incorporates surface temperature measurements from 6,300 weather stations, ship-based and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures, and temperature measurements from Antarctic research stations.

GISS is a NASA laboratory managed by the Earth Sciences Division of the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Maryland. The laboratory is affiliated with Columbia University’s Earth Institute and School of Engineering and Applied Science in New York.

NASA scientists analyzed the raw data using an algorithm that takes into account the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could skew the calculation.

The result is an estimate of the global average temperature difference from a baseline period of 1951 to 1980.

NOAA scientists used much of the same raw temperature data, but a different baseline period. They also employ their own methods to estimate global temperatures.

The UK’s Met Office released provisional full year figures for 2014 showing 2014 to be the UK’s warmest and fourth wettest year in records dating back to 1910.

“It is also the warmest year on record in the Central England Temperature series, which dates back to 1659 and is the world’s longest running instrumental temperature series,” the Met Office said in a statement.

The UK’s mean temperature for the year is 9.9 degrees Celsius, which is 1.1 degrees Celsius above the long-term (1981-2010) average and beats the previous record of 9.7 degrees Celsius set in 2006.

This year’s record means that eight of the UK’s top 10 warmest years have happened since 2002.

In another measurement, also released today, the nonprofit organization Berkeley Earth says, “The global surface temperature average, including both land and sea, for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850. However, within the margin of error (0.05 degrees Celsius), it is tied with 2005 and 2010, and so Berkeley Earth scientists say they can’t be certain it set a new record.”

Berkeley Earth was conceived by Richard and Elizabeth Muller in early 2010 when they “found merit in some of the concerns of skeptics.”

They organized a group of scientists to reanalyze the Earth’s surface temperature record, and published their initial findings in 2012. Berkeley Earth became an independent nonprofit 501(c)(3) in February 2013.

Key findings of the Berkeley Earth analysis:

For land, 2014 was nominally the 4th warmest year since 1753, when the land surface temperature record began.

For oceans, 2014 was the warmest year on record since 1850. The second warmest year was 2010, and 2014 exceeds this by +0.078 degrees Celsius.

For the contiguous United States, 2014 ranked nominally as the 38th warmest year on record since 1850 (+0.23 degrees Celsius).

The warmth in 2014 is not uniform across the Earth. The U.S. state of Michigan in 2014 recorded its 14th coldest year (-1.12 degrees Celsius relative to the 1961-1990 average).

In contrast, the U.S. state of California, in the midst of a severe drought, recorded its warmest year to date (+1.92 degrees Celsius) besting the previous record by 0.76 degrees Celsius.

Internationally, Germany (+2.10 degrees Celsius), the United Kingdom (+1.33 degrees Celsius), Sweden (+2.23 degrees Celsius) and several other European countries also set all-time records for high annual average temperature, as did the continent of Europe as a whole (+1.69 degrees Celsius).

In total, scientists at Berkeley Earth estimate that 8.4 percent of Earth’s surface and 5.6 percent of its land surface set all-time record high annual averages in 2014; 0.11 percent of the Earth’s surface and 0.03 percent of land set all-time record low annual averages in 2014.

Our margin of uncertainty was remarkably small – 0.05 degrees Celsius with 95 percent confidence – due to the inclusion of data from over 30,000 temperature stations, and by the use of optimized statistical methods.

“Even so,” said Berkeley Earth in a statement, “the highest temperature year could not be distinguished. That is, of course, an indication that the Earth’s average temperature for the last decade has changed little; the 10 warmest years all occur since 1998.”

※ 全文及圖片詳見:ENS

作者

蔡麗伶(LiLing Barricman)

In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.