目前，環北極地區是全球最後僅剩的未開發淨土之一。然而，隨著鑽油技術的進步，氣候變遷導致海冰融化，北極也成為石油公司最想要開發的地方。
各大石油公司對北極虎視眈眈多年。據估計，北極圈下藏有900億桶原油。
石油公司北上 油藏開發意外困難
眾多石油公司往北開疆闢土。荷蘭的皇家殼牌（Shell）進入阿拉斯加外海、挪威的國家石油進入挪威北極圈、埃克森美孚和俄羅斯石油也攜手北上俄羅斯北部。
但開發北極油藏遠比想像中困難。殼牌就發生過多意外，例如未能及時獲得許可，鑽油船擱淺擦撞其蒐集漏油的水泥罩，使之在測試時「像個啤酒罐」般整個被壓扁。整起意外讓鑽油計畫延誤了好幾年。
半國營的挪威石油公司，一直是外海和北極鑽油的第一人。不過看到殼牌的失敗經驗，挪威石油也關閉了其阿拉斯加海冰鑽油計畫。
油價大跌 石油公司緊縮
然而，2015年1月是北極大夢最黑暗的時刻。石油公司高層試圖找出因應油價大跌的方法──目前油價每桶$50USD。幾乎全球每間上游公司都在削減開支，北極油藏開發也可說是此時最昂貴也最危險、第一個被砍的計畫。
現在油價大跌，挪威石油連自家後院北極圈的鑽油計畫都一併擱置了。據彭博新聞1月29日報導，挪威石油今年不會在巴倫支海（Barents Sea）鑽油，更讓許多張格陵蘭外海北極鑽油許可證過期。
去年12月，雪佛龍（Chevron）的加拿大北極鑽油計畫，也無限期暫停。
保護區機制 俄羅斯石油北極夢碎
俄羅斯的北極夢也將要失落了，不過原因不同。
去年，俄羅斯石油和埃克森美孚宣布在喀拉海（Kara Sea）發現油藏。俄羅斯石油的Igor Sechin說，這裡藏有高達7億3千萬桶原油。
不過西方世界的保護區禁令，讓埃克森美孚無法繼續和俄羅斯石油合作，埃克森美孚在發現油藏後，得馬上停止作業。最讓俄羅斯石油扼腕的是，埃克森美孚是唯一擁有鑽油平台合約的公司，是唯一可以在該油井工作的業者。
根據路透社1月30日的報導，俄羅斯石油最早要到2016年才可能開始鑽油。
知情人士指出，「2015年不會有鑽油活動。沒有鑽油平台，要去找一個也太晚了。該鑽油計畫是為埃克森美孚鑽油平台量身打造的。」
儘管合約到2016年7月才結束，埃克森美孚已經把自己的鑽油平台撤走。接下來一兩年間不會再有鑽油活動，全球最北邊的油田，在2020年代前都不會開始產油。
殼牌「閉關」 預計2年後重返北極
鑽油意外前科累累的殼牌，第四季營收41.6億美元，比前一季下滑，但比同業表現佳。儘管如此，殼牌仍宣布將在接下來幾年削減150億開支。
儘管如此，殼牌仍希望在閉關兩年後回到北極，可能是因為「沈沒成本」的關係。不管是否會在北極鑽油，殼牌都將花10億元在北極計畫，因為所有北極鑽油船隻和運輸都已經簽好合約。雖然仍需要取得多張許可並解決法律問題，不過根據殼牌原本的北極計畫，應該是要今年夏天就開始鑽油的。
就看殼牌是否要繼續做北極石油夢了。
Oil companies have eyed the Arctic for years. With an estimated 90 billion barrels of oil lying north of the Arctic Circle, the circumpolar north is one of the last parts of the globe that is still almost entirely unexplored.
As drilling technology advances, conventional oil reserves become harder to find, and climate change contributes to melting sea ice, the Arctic has moved up on the list of priorities in oil company board rooms.
That had companies moving north – Royal Dutch Shell off the coast of Alaska, Statoil in the Norwegian Arctic, and ExxonMobil in conjunction with Russia’s Rosneft in the Russian far north.
But tapping the Arctic’s extensive oil reserves has been much harder than previously thought. Shell’s mishaps have been well-documented. The Anglo-Dutch company failed to achieve permits on time, had its drill ships run aground, and saw its oil spill containment dome “crushed like a beer can” during testing. That delayed drilling for several consecutive years.
However, the first month of 2015 has darkened Arctic dreams even further. Oil company executives are trying to figure out how to deal with a collapse in oil prices, now below US$50 per barrel. With virtually every upstream company around the world slashing spending, it is the highest-cost and riskiest projects that are getting scrapped first.
Statoil, the semi-state-owned oil company from Norway, has been an offshore leader and Arctic pioneer. After watching Shell fumble its Arctic campaign, Statoil put its drilling plans off the coast of Alaska on ice. But now with rock-bottom oil prices, Statoil has even shelved Arctic drilling plans in its own backyard. Bloomberg News reported on January 29 that Statoil does not plan on drilling in the Barents Sea this year. It has also let several Arctic exploration licenses off the coast of Greenland expire.
In December, Chevron suspended its drilling plans in Canada’s Arctic indefinitely.
In Russia, Arctic dreams are also going to disappoint, although for different reasons. Last year, Rosneft – operating in conjunction with ExxonMobil – announced a major discovery in the Kara Sea. Rosneft’s Igor Sechin said that the field could hold as much as 730 million barrels of oil.
But western sanctions may delay the victory. ExxonMobil is prohibited from working with Rosneft, and had to wind down its operations shortly after the discovery was announced. Worse for Rosneft, ExxonMobil was the one that had the drilling rig under contract, apparently the only platform that would work for the well.
Reuters reported on January 30, that Rosneft would have to delay drilling until 2016 at the earliest. “There will be no drilling in 2015. There is no platform and it is too late to get one. The project was initially created for Exxon’s platform,” a Rosneft source told Reuters. ExxonMobil has already pulled its platform out, and has it under contract until July 2016. Drilling may not begin for another year or two, and production from the world’s most northerly oil field will not begin until sometime in the 2020’s, barring other setbacks.
Shell, the company with the spottiest Arctic record, announced $4.16 billion in fourth quarter profits, a decline from the previous quarter, but a decent showing relative to its peers. Nevertheless, the company also announced $15 billion in spending cuts over the next several years.
Yet even amid all the spending reductions, Shell hopes to once again return the Arctic, after a two-year hiatus. That may be because of the sunk costs. Shell will spend around $1 billion on its Arctic program whether or not drilling takes place because of all the ships and other logistics already under contract. Shell still needs to obtain several permits and clear legal hurdles, but if all goes according to plan, the company could begin drilling this summer.
It is up to Shell then to keep the oil industry’s Arctic dreams alive.
※ 全文及圖片詳見：ENS
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