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全球暖化30年 自然生態大幅變動

2008年05月19日
摘譯自2008年5月14日ENS紐約報導;陳維婷編譯;蔡麗伶審校

長途遷徙的候鳥受到暖化影響,也改變了習慣。圖片來源:FreeFoto.com儘管對一般民眾而言,2007年冬天也許濕冷如昔,一項新研究卻證實,在全球尺度之下,氣候暖化正廣泛改變著全世界的自然生態。這項研究整合數十年來未曾綜合分析過的資料,發現人類活動所造成的增溫,影響了整個地球的物理環境與生物系統。

主持研究的科學家羅森斯薇格(Cynthia Rosenzweig)隸屬於NASA哥達德太空研究中心(GISS)與哥倫比亞氣候系統研究中心(CCSR),她表示,「氣候因為人類活動增加溫室氣體排放而受到影響,在全球尺度下,暖化衝擊了整個物理與生物系統。」

羅森斯薇格與來自世界其他10個研究單位的科學家合作,分析1970年以來期刊論文中的相關資料,包括物理環境方面的829篇,以及動植物系統方面的28800篇。以往類似的研究只針對單一現象或小區域,本次的分析結果則揭露了橫跨整個大陸的改變狀況。

研究發現,許多區域的草木抽芽時間提早,北半球的物種分佈往高緯度及高海拔遷移,在歐洲、北美與澳洲,長途遷徙的候鳥也改變了習慣。

在物理環境中觀察紀錄到的變化,有95%與暖化的趨勢一致,包括所有大陸都出現冰川消退,永凍層融化、春季融雪逕流提早、河湖池塘水溫升高等現象。棲息在如此的物理環境下,生物的變化有90%符合暖化,海洋中浮游生物及魚群也發生改變,耐熱物種逐漸取代耐冷物種。

沙漠侵襲了原本的可耕地。圖片來源:United Nations University科學家認為,除了人類造成的氣候改變,幾乎沒有其他原因能帶來上述種種變化,連森林砍伐或自然氣候變動都不足以解釋。他們的研究動機,來自2007年IPCC報告的結論共識,即「人類活動導致暖化,可能會影響生物及物理系統」。

羅森斯薇格指出,因為在北美、亞洲、歐洲進行的研究遠多於其他區域,所以這些地區的轉變從資料中最為明顯可察。在南美、澳洲與非洲等其他大陸上,雖然人為影響暖化的證據歷歷可見,對物理環境與生物系統的相關轉變卻少有記載,科學家們因此呼籲,應該儘速在這些地區,特別是熱帶與亞熱帶展開研究。

30 Years of Global Warming Has Altered the Planet
NEW YORK, New York, May 14, 2008 (ENS)

It may have been cold and wet where you lived this winter, but on a global scale, the warming climate is changing life on Earth, finds a new analysis of decades of scientific information not previously assembled.

The data show that physical and biological systems across the Earth are being affected by higher temperatures resulting from human activities.

"Humans are influencing climate through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the warming world is causing impacts on physical and biological systems attributable at the global scale," said lead author Cynthia Rosenzweig, a scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research.

Rosenzweig and researchers from 10 other institutions around the world analyzed data from published papers on 829 physical systems and some 28,800 plant and animal systems, back to 1970. Their analysis of revealed a picture of changes on continental scales, while previous studies had looked mainly at single phenomena, or at smaller areas.

Scientists are recording earlier leafing of trees and plants over many regions; movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes in the northern hemisphere; changes in long distance bird migrations in Europe, North America and Australia.

In physical systems, 95 percent of observed changes are consistent with warming trends. These include wastage of glaciers on all continents; melting permafrost; earlier spring river runoff; and warming of water bodies.

Among living creatures inhabiting such systems, 90 percent of changes are consistent with warming, the researchers found. In the oceans, they are observing the shifting of the plankton and fish from cold-adapted to warm-adapted communities.

The researchers say it is unlikely that any force except human-influenced climate change could be driving all this; factors like deforestation or natural climate variations could not explain it. Their work builds upon the consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which in 2007 declared climate warming caused by human activities "likely" to affect biological and physical systems.

The data showing the patterns of change are strongest in North America, Asia and Europe - mainly because far more studies have been done there, said Rosenzweig.

On the other continents, including South America, Australia and Africa, documentation of changes in physical and biological systems is sparse, even though there is good evidence there of human-influenced warming itself. The authors say that there is an urgent need to study these environmental systems, especially in tropical and subtropical areas.

全文及圖片詳見:ENS

作者

蔡麗伶(LiLing Barricman)

In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.