專家學者警告 氣候變遷將在2100年跨越關鍵門檻 | 環境資訊中心

專家學者警告 氣候變遷將在2100年跨越關鍵門檻

2009年02月19日
摘譯自2009年2月16日ENS美國,芝加哥報導;謝芳怡編譯;蔡麗伶審校

印度尼西亞的森林大火 圖片提供:CIFOR/ICRAF跨政府氣候變遷專家小組(IPCC)的重要成員警告,若政府、企業及個人再不採取決定性的行動,21世紀的全球暖化將可能以極快的速度惡化,導致比預期中更嚴重的環境損害。

IPCC科學家、同時任職於史丹佛大學及美國華盛頓卡內基科學研究所的菲爾德教授表示,在全球人類行為照常運作的情況下,越高的氣溫將使熱帶森林燃燒殆盡,北極凍土融化,排放出數十億噸的溫室氣體,讓全球溫度又不斷升高,這樣的惡性循環將在本世紀末加遽惡化及失控。

在史丹佛大學任教生物及環境地球系統科學,同時也是資深研究員的菲爾德教授指出:「人類所導致的氣候變遷,將會加速森林和凍土這些數千年來儲存大量二氧化碳的生態系統,將二氧化碳釋放出來。」

IPCC並沒有進行任何研究或是監控氣候變化的相關數據和變數,其扮演的主要角色在於是從全面性、客觀、開放且透明的基礎上,針對全球最新的科學、科技和社會經濟文獻,就人類導致氣候變化危機、其所觀察到和推斷出的影響,以及應變減緩氣候變遷等議題所提出的論述進行評估。

最新的研究證實氣候系統可能會做出極危險的反撲,將目前碳匯轉變為碳源,菲爾德教授以熱帶森林做為主要的例子。

大量的碳被儲存在潮溼的熱帶雨林植被中,因為潮溼這些植被能抵抗野火的發生,但隨著氣溫升高和降雨模式的轉變,讓森林面臨乾枯的威脅,變得越來越無法防火。

研究人員預測,下個世紀由於野火和其他因素導致森林面積減少,將會讓大氣中的二氧化碳濃度由目前的386ppm再提高100 ppm,對全球氣候帶來毀滅性的後果。

已被儲存在永久凍土下數千年的植物,在北極持續暖化的情況下,預期也將會加速腐爛。

Climate Could Cross Critical Threshold by 2100, Expert Warns
CHICAGO, Illinois, February 16, 2009 (ENS)

Without decisive action by governments, corporations and individuals, global warming in the 21st century is likely to accelerate at a much faster pace and cause more environmental damage than predicted, warns a leading member of the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In a business-as-usual world, higher temperatures could ignite tropical forests and melt the Arctic tundra, releasing billions of tons of greenhouse gas that could raise global temperatures even more - a vicious cycle that could spiral out of control by the end of the century, said IPCC scientist Chris Field of Stanford University and the Carnegie Institution for Science.

"There is a real risk that human-caused climate change will accelerate the release of carbon dioxide from forest and tundra ecosystems, which have been storing a lot of carbon for thousands of years," said Field, a professor of biology and of environmental Earth system science at Stanford, and a senior fellow at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment.

The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide concerning the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

New studies are revealing potentially dangerous feedbacks in the climate system that could convert current carbon sinks into carbon sources. Field points to tropical forests as a prime example.

Vast amounts of carbon are stored in the vegetation of moist tropical forests, which are resistant to wildfires because of their wetness. But warming temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns threaten to dry the forests, making them less fireproof.

Researchers estimate that loss of forests through wildfires and other causes during the next century could boost atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide by up to 100 parts per million over the current 386 ppm, with possibly devastating consequences for global climate.

Warming in the Arctic is expected to speed up the decay of plant matter that has been in cold storage in permafrost for thousands of years.

作者

蔡麗伶(LiLing Barricman)

In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.