京都協議快到期 杜哈氣候談判和時間賽跑 | 台灣環境資訊協會-環境資訊中心

京都協議快到期 杜哈氣候談判和時間賽跑

【UNFCCC-COP18】系列

2012年12月06日
摘譯自2012年12月4日ENS卡達,杜哈報導;沈瑞筠編譯;蔡麗伶審校

阿拉伯聯合大公國和卡達的官員在「氣候變遷下乾旱土地的糧食安全」會議中發言。左起:聯合國環境規劃署執行長Achim Steiner、阿拉伯聯合大公國Majid Alsuwaidi、聯合國秘書長潘基文、愛爾蘭前總統Mary Robinson(Mary Robinson基金會創辦人)及COP18主席Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah(攝影:Sallie Schatz)聯合國秘書長潘基文在杜哈氣候變遷高峰會上對各國領袖提出緊急呼籲,「我們不要抱有任何幻想,這是一個威脅到我們全體、我們的經濟、我們的安全及我們的後代的危機。」

潘基文在第18屆聯合國氣候變遷會締約國會議(COP18)的高峰會開幕式致詞時,以冰帽融化、海平面上升、土地退化及全球各地乾旱為例,表示「氣候變遷的威脅處處可見。」他警告,「無論貧富、沒有人得以倖免於氣候變遷;這是全人類的生存挑戰–我們生存的方式、我們對未來的計畫。這是我們的共業,我們(全人類)就是問題,所以我們必須有因應的解決方式。」

聯合國氣候變遷框架公約(UNFCCC)為期兩週的會議,召集1997年「京都議定書」的195個締約方與會。該議定書共有37個國家(包括高度工業化國家正邁向市場經濟的發展中國家)給予具法律效力的承諾,同意降低與限制碳排。

為期兩週的會議將於12月7日閉幕,與會代表在各種目的下盡力延長京都議定書,京都議定書第一期承諾將在2012年底(也就是20天後)到期。

潘基文向與會者表示,「我呼籲所有參與國以妥協的精神、長遠的眼光並且避免因瑣碎的細節使談判陷入僵局。讓我們訂出在2015年有效、公平、有企圖心及全球性的氣候協議。」他希望各國政府本週在杜哈可達成五個關鍵成果,由達成京都議定書第二期承諾期開始。

「京都議定書仍是目前國際上最有約束力的氣候協議。它必須延續下去,它是所有談判的基礎。它有包括會計、法律在內等體系支持,而它的架構是目前急需的。它的效期到2013年1月1日,各國政府需繼續承諾更強健的氣候制度。」

潘基文也期待於長期氣候資金能有所進展,確保於坎昆及德班會期成立的「綠色氣候基金」及「氣候科技中心暨網絡」(Climate Technology Center and Network)確實及有效率的支持發展中國家適應。

此外,他期望各國政府不含糊的協商出全球性、具有法律約束力的談判結果,並顯示他們如何達以行動跨越全球上升溫度控制在攝氏2度內的目標與目前進展的差異。」

最近由聯合國主導的報告指出,將全球溫度上升幅度維持在國際同意的2℃,有其急迫性,超過這個標準,氣候變遷將會導致嚴重的衝擊。

潘基文:差距可以彌補  但時間有限

聯合國大會主席Vuk Jeremic在杜哈舉辦的聯合國氣候談判會議中向代表們致詞(攝影:Mark Garten)聯合國大會主席Vuk Jeremic告訴與會代表,氣候變遷該成為所有聯合國會員國的核心議題。

他表示,「我們能掌控並防止氣候變遷重大影響的機會正在消失,當未來的世代回過頭來檢視我們所做的決定,我們不該讓他們責備我們沒有及時採取行動。不要讓後代承受因沒有即時回應而無力承擔的後果。」

潘基文在12月3日於杜哈舉行的記者會中表示,「我們正在跟時間賽跑。」

每一刻的耽誤都會對未來產生巨大的影響或是對未來造成嚴重的傷害,他的警告呼應全球科學家的類似警告。

「如果我們在明確的目標下一起行動,我們可以因應這項挑戰。但這需要各國政府、企業及民間團結一致。這個選擇很明確:不是一起克服就是一起受難。」

報告明確指出資金不足

但所有的問題還是回歸到資金,開發中國家及非政府組織擔心,全球氣候變遷行動的基金嚴重不足。

根據獨立的非營利組織「氣候政策倡議」(Climate Policy Initiative)在杜哈發表的報告《2012年氣候基金的全球景觀》(The Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2012),2010年及2011年全球投資在抑制氣候變遷的經費,達到3640億美元。

這份報告顯示最完整的全球氣候基金計畫。報告發現,上述數字遠低於把全球增溫控制在2℃內所需的投資額。

基文和哥斯大黎加籍聯合國氣候變遷框架公約執行秘書Christiana Figueres出席2012年12月4日在杜哈舉行的聯合國變遷啟動會議(UN Momentum for Change event)(攝影:Penny Yi Wang)

作為對照,國際能源機構表示為促進低碳排,每年必需投資1兆美元於能源領域。該報告預測,全球為了適應氣候變化的發展需要更多金錢挹注。

該報告顯示,2012年民間部門是全球氣候基金的主要來源,與企業和可再生能源項目的開發提供美元之間,私人公司及可再生能源建設約貢獻介於2170-2430億美元間的金額。

全球政府約投資了160-230億。多數公部門的投資透過獎勵機制和補貼降低了投資成本,扮演民間投資催化劑的腳色。

公部門及民間間的橋樑如國家發展銀行及商業銀行等,提供了不可或缺的1100-1200億金援。

氣候政策倡議執行長,也是這份報告的共同作者Barbara Buchner表示,「事實上,對決策者有限的預算來說,獎勵民間投資公眾政策是好事。」

「但是,總投資仍遠低於將氣溫上升維持在兩度內所需要的水平。我們必須專注在迅速而有效可執行而長遠的政策來擴及全球。」

雖然呼籲要合作,非政府組織也警告:由於富裕的已開發國家談判代表拒絕承諾金援,將導致聯合國氣候談判文件草案議題上留下「空白頁」。

綠色氣候基金  未來堪慮

非政府組織在杜哈會場外示威遊行呼籲氣候正義。(攝影:Christian Aid)馬來西亞非政府組織第三世界網路(Third World Network)的主任Chee Yoke Ling表示:「這個空白頁符合已開發國家在氣候談判會議中對氣候基金的承諾:一個大大的零。」

總部在華盛頓特區的「行動援助」(Action Aid International)的氣候代表Brandon Wu表示:「許多獨立研究顯示過去氣候基金承諾並未兌現。這些過去的承諾既不是新的也不是附加到現有的外援,他們卻無法達到當初協議的標準。」

「這些破碎的承諾對現在的談判構成威脅。如果美國和其他國家繼續拒絕協議新的標準,開發中國家可能會離開談判桌。」行動援助組織和來自45個國家的1500萬人共同努力消除貧困和不公平。

這些觀察團體認為,綠色氣候基金的未來堪慮。

美國智囊組織政策研究中心(Institute for Policy Studies)的資深政策分析師Janet Redman表示:「目前綠色氣候基金一分錢都沒有,已開發國家威脅除非開放民間不受阻礙地進入,不然他們要讓這個基金完全匱乏。」

她說,「綠色氣候基金可說是2011年德班會最重要的具體成果,為的是受氣候變遷影響最嚴重的人們,而不是大企業或華爾街。已發展國家必須履行他們會填補基金的承諾。」

Doha Climate Talks in a ‘Race Against Time’
DOHA, Qatar, December 4, 2012 (ENS)

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today issued an urgent warning to government leaders as the annual United Nations climate negotiations kicked into high gear in Doha. “Let us be under no illusion,” he said. “This is a crisis. A threat to us all. Our economies. Our security. And the well-being of our children and those who will come after.”

Opening the high-level segment of the 18th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, Ban said, “The danger signs are all around,” citing the unprecedented melting of icecaps, rising sea levels, and land degradation and drought around the world.

“No one is immune to climate change – rich or poor,” he warned. “It is an existential challenge for the whole human race – our way of life, our plans for the future. We must take ownership. We, collectively, are the problem. Then we should have the solutions.”

The two-week conference brings together the 195 Parties to the UNFCCC, the parent treaty of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Under the Protocol, 37 States – consisting of highly industrialized countries and countries undergoing the process of transition to a market economy – have legally binding emission limitation and reduction commitments.

Delegates at the two-week conference that ends this Friday will, among other goals, try to extend the Kyoto Protocol, whose first commitment period expires in just 20 days – at the end of 2012.

“I urge all Parties to work with a spirit of compromise – to take the long view and avoid getting bogged down in minutiae,” Ban told participants. “Let us ensure that we stay on track for an effective, fair, ambitious and universal climate agreement by 2015.”

The Secretary-General said he hopes for five key “deliverables” by governments in Doha this week, beginning with the adoption of a ratifiable second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

“The Kyoto Protocol remains the closest we have to a global, binding climate agreement. It must continue. It is a foundation to build on. It has important institutions, including accounting and legal systems, and the framework that markets sorely need. Its continuation on January 1, 2013 would show that governments remain committed to a more robust climate regime.”

The secretary-general also expects progress on long-term climate finance, and ensuring that the Green Climate Fund and the Climate Technology Centre and Network, set up at previous UN climate negotiations in Cancun and Durban to support mitigation and adaptation by developing countries, are fully equipped and effective.

In addition, he expectes governments to demonstrate, with no ambiguity, that negotiations on a global and legally binding instrument remain on track, and to show how they intend to act on the gap between mitigation pledges and what is required to achieve target of keeping global average termperature rise below two degrees Celsius.

Recent UN-led reports have pointed to the urgency of keeping global average temperatures from rising beyond an internationally agreed level of two degrees Celsius, beyond which climate change would have serious impacts.

“The gap can be bridged. But time is not on our side,” Ban warned.

President of the UN General Assembly Vuk Jeremic told the meeting that addressing the problem of climate change must become a core national interest of every UN Member State.

“The window of opportunity to prevent the effects of climate change from spiraling out of our control is closing,” he said. “When future generations look upon the choices we made, let them not be forced to exclaim that we failed to act in time. Let them not have to suffer the consequences of the inability to answer the clarion call to act with conscientious foresight.”

Speaking to reporters in Doha today, Ban emphasized that “We are in a race against time.”

Every delay will require greater future effort or will mean greater future harm, he warned echoing similar warnings from scientists from around the world.

“If we act together with clear purpose, we can meet this challenge. But we need to be united – governments from all regions, business and civil society. We have a clear choice: stand together, or fall together,” Ban emphasized.

It all comes down to money, and the funding for climate change action is falling short, worrying developing countries and nongovernmental organizations.

Global annual investment to curb climate change reached US$364 billion in 2010/2011, according to a new reporton climate finance released at Doha by the Climate Policy Initiative, an independent, not-for-profit organization.

This amount falls short of most estimates of investment needed to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius, finds the report, “The Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2012,” the most comprehensive global climate finance mapping effort to date.

By comparison, the International Energy Agency, says US$1 trillion each year is needed in incremental investment in the energy sector alone to promote low emissions growth. The report projects that much more will be needed to achieve climate-resilient development globally.

In 2012, the private sector was the main source of global climate finance, with corporations and renewable energy project developers contributing between $217 and 243 billion, the report shows.

Public sector investment totaled between $16 and 23 billion globally. Most public sector investment acted as a catalyst for private investment through incentive mechanisms and subsidies that helped to lower investment costs.

Public and private intermediary organizations such as national development banks and commercial banks raised and channeled between $110 and 120 billion, providing support for projects that would otherwise not be viable.

“The fact that the public policies and incentives are starting to unlock private investment is good news for policymakers dealing with limited budgets,” said Barbara Buchner, director, Climate Policy Initiative Europe, one of the principal authors of the report.

“However, the level of available investment still falls far short of the total amount needed to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius,” warned Buchner. “We must focus on the policies that are working and act quickly to scale those up around the world.”

Despite calls for cooperation, nongovernmental organizations are warning that the UN climate talks are being blocked by the rich industrialized countries whose negotiators refused to discuss finance commitments, leading to an “empty page” proposal on the issue in a draft text.

“The empty-white page matches the climate finance pledges of developed countries under the UN climate convention. Empty in 2013. A big zero,” said Chee Yoke Ling, director of the Third World Network, a Malaysian nongovernmental organization.

“Several independent studies have shown that the previous round of climate finance promises weren’t met. Previous promises were not entirely new nor additional to existing foreign aid and they did not meet the agreed level,” said Brandon Wu, climate campaigner at Action Aid International, based in Washington, DC.

“Those broken promises threaten to break the talks. If the U.S. and others continue to refuse an agreement on new levels, on transparency and on sources then developing countries should consider walking away from the table completely,” said Wu on behalf of Action Aid, which works with over 15 million people in 45 countries to eliminate poverty and injustice.

These observer groups are concerned that the future of the Green Climate Fund is in doubt.

“Currently the Green Climate Fund stands empty of public dollars, with developed countries threatening to starve the Fund unless the private sector can have unfettered access.” said Janet Redman, a senior policy analyst at the Institute for Policy Studies, a U.S. thinktank.

“The Green Climate Fund, arguably the most significant concrete outcome from the 2011 Durban conference, was meant for the people who are most impacted by climate change, not big business or Wall Street,” Redman said. “Developed countries must fulfill their promise to fill the Fund.”

※ 全文及圖片詳見:ENS