接受了來自美國、歐洲、日本等地銀行大筆融資貸款且極具爭議性的的長江大壩工程，正受到各方的抨擊，這是中國政府頭一次在國內遇到有人敢對由政府執行之計畫提出質疑。
三峽大壩的財務贊助者包括美國銀行、柏克萊銀行、大通銀行、瑞士第一波士頓信貸、倫敦德意志銀行、匯豐銀行、美林證券、摩根史坦利添惠和所羅門美邦/花旗銀行集團。
53位資深中國工程師和學者表現出少有的反對態度，他們公開警告中共政府：三峽大壩－世界最大的水力發電計畫－將會面臨到嚴重的技術和財政困擾。
接著國營的媒體揭露了三峽大壩工程的粗劣質量與相關的舞弊案，同時，國外的專家也提出大壩工程將因財務虧損而告終結的警告。
曾帶領投資者反對美國參與大壩計畫的波士頓Trillium Asset Management資深分析家Simon Billenness認為這將加速三峽大壩的失敗，因為這個計畫風險非常大，他表示三峽水壩「只能經由仲介者獲得資金，而如今連這個管道都困難重重」。
關於貪污、侵害人權、以及建壩所帶來之環境危機等的報告，已經引起如Trillium 和Domini group基金等有社會責任的投資公司勸阻投資者與此計畫又任何牽連。
多年前，世界銀行和美國進出口銀行便在中國以及國際專家的警告聲中和此計畫劃清了界線。當時，專家們警告，這個宣稱為解決水患與發電而設計的計畫，實際上將帶來嚴重的環境、社會以及人權危機。
一位世界銀行的官員說「這逐漸成形的災難足以列為教科書上的範例」。在世界銀行拒絕投資之後，一些私人資本家承購了中國開發銀行（前身中國國家開發銀行）發行的債券。今年五月，所羅門美邦成為最近發行五億美元債券的帶頭經理。所羅門美邦內部人員說他們正試著增加銀行的資金。負責之前各期債券之機構的經理也都說過相同的話。
但Billenness和其他反對者認為兩者間具有理論上的差異。他們宣稱在北京政府賦予中國開發銀行為大壩集資的工作後，三峽大壩成為該銀行最主要的客戶。雖然目前尚未有發行新債券的消息，但投資管理者和計畫評論家皆認為可能將有另一波的集資計畫。同時，Trillium 和Domini持續在如大通、花旗銀行與美林證券等機構，針對三峽大壩的問題，為投資者提出說明。環保團體則發起消費者抵制Discover Card（摩根史坦利添惠的子公司）和花旗銀行的活動。
受到這些活動的影響，中國開發銀行的債券將會因其具有政治及財政上的輻射效應，而步上終結的命運，就如同最近中國石油的第一次對外釋股一般。中國石油的第一次對外釋股原由高盛公司所承購，但因受到勞工、環保及人權團體的強烈反對，而由100億美元大幅縮減至30億美元。預計2009年完工的三峽計畫，能產生約18000百萬瓦的電量。現在，距離預期中將完成水壩第一期計畫電腦連線作業之底限僅賸下三年的時間，不免讓評論者開始質疑其財務的可行性。
最近，國際探索組織（位於加拿大追蹤出口信貸機構的活躍組織）在一份報告中，預見了在三峽大壩興建完成前，將發生一連串破產與緊縮投資間的惡性循環。稍早，曾有人估計，興建大壩的經費已提升到700億美元。該報告預測「未來大壩提供之電力的費用要比新型高效率汽油渦輪機與廢熱發電廠的發電成本，貴到二倍以上」。由於新的核能及熱能發電廠即將營運，中國大陸將面臨電力供應過剩的問題，這更使得三峽大壩所產生的電力難以銷售。
來自德國、瑞士、加拿大、日本的外資機構也競相為三峽大壩計畫提供安全的工程、設備和顧問合約方面的協助。在最近一次的抗議事件中，研究人員與工程師警告中國總理江澤民：除原計畫中迫令遷離家園的百萬人以外，到大壩完成後，可能另有五十萬的百姓將步上相同的命運。
抗議者同時提到「這項計畫將造成重慶港的泥沙淤積，因而會阻斷了長江的航運。」即使是受到嚴密控制的國家媒體也開始透露和三峽大壩相關之貪污事件的報導，顯示大眾對這具爭議性之計畫的質疑。
在一月，共產黨黨營的人民日報報導「最少有14個國家稽查員涉及了5700萬元的盜用公款案，該筆公款是為了補償因水庫而遷移的民眾。」
A controversial Chinese dam that has received billions of dollars in financing from U.S., European and Japanese banks and export credit agencies is being bombarded with fresh criticism in a country where government projects are seldom questioned.
Financial backers of the Three Gorges Dam project have included Bank of America, Barclays Capital, Chase Manhattan, Credit Suisse First Boston, Deutsche Bank of London, HSBC Markets, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup.
In a rare sign of defiance, 53 senior Chinese engineers and academics recently warned the government that the dam - the world s largest hydro-power construction project - is beset with technical and financial problems. In a rare sign of defiance, 53 senior Chinese engineers and academics recently warned the government that the dam - the world s largest hydro-power construction project - is beset with technical and financial problems.
Their protest follows revelations by the government-controlled media of corruption and shoddy work and warnings from outside experts that the dam will end up operating at a financial loss.
"This is a further nail in a coffin that's already being buried," said Simon Billenness, a senior analyst at Boston's Trillium Asset Management who has led investor opposition to U.S. participation in the dam. Because the project is so risky, Three Gorges "can only tap capital markets through intermediaries and even that route's getting more difficult," Billenness said.
Reports of corruption, human rights violations and environmental risks associated with the dam have fueled the efforts of "socially responsible" investors such as Trillium and the Domini group of funds to dissuade underwriters from having anything to do with the project.
The World Bank and U.S. Export-Import Bank walked away from the project years ago amid warnings from Chinese and international experts that the dam, designed to help control floods while generating electricity, carried serious environmental, social and human-rights risks.
"It was a textbook-case disaster in the making," said one World Bank official. Private financiers then stepped in, underwriting Yankee bonds issued by the China Development Bank, formerly the China State Development Bank. Last May, Salomon Smith Barney acted as co-lead manager for the latest bond issue of $500 million. Salomon officials said they were trying raise general-purpose capital for the bank. Executives at institutions involved in previous issues said the same thing.
But Billenness and other opponents argue that the difference is academic. Three Gorges, they claim, became one of China Development Bank's chief clients after Beijing gave the bank the job of raising money for the dam. No new bond issue has been announced, but investment executives and project critics say another round of fundraising remains possible Meanwhile, Trillium and Domini continue to file shareholder resolutions critical of the dam at institutions like Chase, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. Environmental groups have launched consumer boycotts of the Discover Card, a Morgan Stanley Dean Witter affiliate, and of Citigroup's retail banking services.
As a result of the activity, said Billenness, China Development Bank "bonds could end up being as politically and financially radioactive as the recent IPO for PetroChina."That IPO, underwritten by Goldman Sachs, was slashed from $10 billion to around $3 billion under intense opposition from labor, environmental and human rights groups.The Three Gorges project, expected to be completed in 2009, is designed to generate some 18,000 megawatts of electricity. But with three years remaining before the $24 billion dam's first phase comes on-line, critics question its financial prospects.
A recent report by Probe International, an activist group based in Canada that tracks the portfolios of export credit agencies, foresees a "death spiral" of bankruptcy and stranded investment costs for the massive dam even before its completion. Already, independent estimates of the real cost of the dam project have risen to as high as $70 billion.
"Electric power from the dam will cost at least two times more than power from the new high-efficiency gas turbines and cogeneration plants," the report predicts.This is aggravated by the fact China is experiencing a glut in electricity and new nuclear and thermal plants are scheduled to open soon, making it even more difficult for the Three Gorges dam to sell the power it will produce.
Export credit agencies from Germany, Switzerland, Canada and Japan have also vied to help secure construction, equipment and consultancy contracts for the project. The latest protest from the Chinese academics and engineers warns President Jiang Zemin that "a staggering number of 500,000 people" may be added to the one million already expected to be forced from their homes when the dam is completed.
The project would also block navigation at the Yangtze River, where the dam is under construction, by increasing siltation at the port of Chongqing, the protesters said. Even the tightly controlled state media has begun leaking accounts of corruption in connection with Three Gorges, an indication of public suspicion about the controversial project.
In January, the People's Daily, the Communist Party's flagship newspaper, reported that state auditors had implicated at least 14 people in a $57 million embezzlement ring to divert funds earmarked for resettling residents displaced by the dam
Abid Aslam是亞洲直接資產新聞雜誌的編輯，Antoaneta Bezlova是駐北京國際新聞社記者
