美國國會總審計局（GAO）3月26日提出一份報告，認為聯邦政府應該更策略地協調相關聯邦機構儘快估計石油峰值到達時程，並對國會提出建議，如何減緩石油峰值所造成的後續效應。
石油峰值，是指全球石油產量達到頂點之後，隨後的產量只會下降。
多數研究估計石油峰值將在2040年之前發生，然而，一位瑞典科學家於3月30日警告，石油峰值最快可能就在明年到來。
瑞典烏普薩拉大學（Uppsala）原子核和粒子物理系研究人員羅布留斯（Fredrik Robelius）在其博士論文中提到，幾個重要油田採油速率是估計石油峰值更好的指標。「最壞的結果是2008年就得面對石油峰值到來，倘若石油需求成長能壓低到1.4%，最樂觀的預估是道2018年。」
GAO表示，許多不確定因子都會影響石油消耗速率和存留狀況，因此估計的石油峰值會有一段不小的時間範圍。
這些不確定因子包括未開採的石油量、技術限制、支出成本、環保和油田國家潛在的政治及投資環境不確定風險、和全世界未來的石油需求量。
反之，石油需求量亦受全球經濟成長和政府政策左右，GAO指出，政府針對環境和氣候變遷的因應測卻，以及消費者的節能心態都是關鍵。
儘管這個新模式並未減輕石油峰值將帶來的困境，羅布留斯認為：「在油田開採和深海探索如火如荼展開之際，333個巨級油田(giant field)仍供應大多數石油氣能源。在最樂觀的情況下，委內瑞拉Orinoco和加拿大阿爾伯塔石油勘採可望成為未來重要油田，亦不足以延後石油峰值迫在眉睫的到臨。」
The U.S. government needs a strategy to coordinate and prioritize federal agency efforts to reduce uncertainty about the timing of an oil peak and to advise Congress on how best to mitigate consequences, finds a new report by the Government Accountability Office, GAO, the investigative branch of Congress.
The oil peak is that point when global production reaches its maximum and then can only decline.
The GAO report, published Thursday, says most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. But today, a Swedish scientist warned that the peak could come as early as next year.
Fredrik Robelius in the Department of Nuclear and Particle Physics at Uppsala University published his doctoral thesis today in which he says the rate of extraction from giant oil fields is a better indicator of the peak than oil prices. "A worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008, and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 percent demand growth, peaks in 2018," Robelius predicts.
The GAO says the range of estimates it found for the date of peak oil is wide because the timing of the peak depends on "multiple, uncertain factors" that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used.
These factors include the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil.
Demand for oil will, in turn, be influenced by global economic growth and may be affected by government policies on the environment and climate change and consumer choices about conservation, the GAO said.
Robelius writes that new oil discoveries are not likely to help ease consumers over the peak oil point. "Although contributions from new field developments and deepwater is large, production from the 333 giant oil fields still dominates," says Robelius. "Despite optimistic production forecasts of the undoubtedly large resources of Orinoco and Alberta, their contribution is not enough to offset peak oil."
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