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2009世界現況:減緩地球發燒的時間 倒數中

2009年01月16日
摘譯自2009年1月13日ENS美國,華府報導;丁秋仁編譯;蔡麗伶、禾引審校

位於印度的燃煤電廠。在京都議定書下印度並無溫室氣體排放限制。圖片提供:Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd。看守世界中心(Worldwatch Institute)1月13日公布第26期年度報告《2009世界現況:逼近暖化的世界(State of the World 2009: Into a Warming World)》,當中指出,為要避免全球氣候系統上演毀滅性失序的情節,人類必須在2050年之前停止排放如二氧化碳等溫室氣體。

該獨立研究組織認為,他山之石就在於再生能源的使用與效能的提升、注重農、林業發展,以及公民意識對減緩與應對氣候變遷的抬頭。

長久以來氣候政策與經濟發展之間的折衝,往往留下僵局。然而,隨著美國新科總統歐巴馬走馬上任,以及國際社會於2009年12月於丹麥首都哥本哈根,費神商討一部足以頂替將於2012年失效的《京都議定書》的新條約,這些局勢的演變讓該報告滿心嚮往解除僵局的那一天。

2007年諾貝爾和平獎得主帕喬里(Rajendra Pachauri)教授表示:「2009世界現況最主要是在透露:若全球社會再不早點採取適度的行動與方法,恐怕氣候變遷的影響層面將更為惡化,甚至超乎我們所能掌控的能力範圍。減緩溫室氣體排放的成本與可行性尚是我們能力所及,且它攸關著社會各層面的許多實質利益」。

多數科學家皆指證,與18世紀中期的工業革命初期時比起來,人類的諸多活動確實已讓地表的平均溫度上升攝氏0.8度以上(相當於華氏1.4度)。

事實上,仍有部分導致氣候變遷的溫室氣體尚未發揮作用,並未立即影響地表溫度,因此粗估暖化的幅度應還有再增加攝氏1度的空間。

科學家預估,今日所排放的二氧化碳總量將近有一半,會儲藏在大氣層中近一個世紀之久,甚至絕大部分未來將會存留1萬年的時間。

減緩氣候變遷的成功策略最主要還是落在先進國家和富人的肩上,渴望透過資金的灌注,鼓勵快速減少溫室氣體排放,以及大筆投資發展應變機制。

不單如此,此策略亦須處理到氣候變遷與糧食生產、人口成長及全球經濟發展之間的關聯性。經濟學家已估計出,若欲緩和氣候變遷,必須連續10年,每年花費1至2.5兆美元的天文數字才有可能。不過若撒手不管,最後的成本損失金額將不只這些。看守世界中心為能切實評估氣候危機挾帶的威脅,且探索創新與實用的解決之道,在此書中已較前幾期表列了更多著者,其中不少位來自屢受氣候災變重創的發展中國家。整本書的架構不只提供世界社會在氣候變遷中的解套藍圖,更讓世界變得更穩定、更公平、更繁榮。

此書首章羅列未來在減緩與應對氣候變遷的路途上,必須去考量到並去正視的10項重點挑戰。

State of the World 2009: Time to Cool the Planet Running Out
WASHINGTON, DC, January 13, 2009 (ENS)

Ending the emission of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide by 2050 will be necessary to avoid "catastrophic disruption to the world's climate," according to the Worldwatch Institute in its 26th annual assessment, "State of the World 2009: Into a Warming World," released today.

Yet, the independent research organization says opportunities abound in renewable energy and efficiency improvements, agriculture and forestry, and the resilience of societies for slowing and managing climate change.

The assessment holds out hope that the gridlock that has long plagued climate policy can finally be broken with the new administration of President Barack Obama and international climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 to craft a treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

2007 Nobel Peace Laureate Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, said, "The strongest message from State of the World 2009 is this: if the world does not take action early and in adequate measure, the impacts of climate change could prove extremely harmful and overwhelm our capacity to adapt. At the same time, the costs and feasibility of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions are well within our reach and carry a wealth of substantial benefits for many sections of society."

Most scientists agree that Earth's average temperature has already risen by more than 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century, with much of that increase attributed to human activities.

Nearly one degree Celsius of additional warming may already be in store, based on past emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases that have not yet made their influence felt on surface temperatures.

Half of the carbon dioxide emitted today is expected to remain in the atmosphere a century from now, and much will remain even 10,000 years in the future, scientists predict.

A successful climate strategy will motivate rapid reductions in emissions as well as major investments in adaptation, with both efforts necessarily financed mostly by the world's wealthier countries and people.

Such a strategy ultimately will also need to address the warming climate's connection to food production, population growth, and the global economy. Economists have estimated the cost of avoiding dangerous climate change at around $1-2.5 trillion a year for decades to come; yet the costs of not doing so are expected to be far higher.

In order to assess the threat the climate crisis presents and explore innovative and practical solutions, Worldwatch enlisted more authors for this book than for any previous edition of the series, many hailing from the developing countries most vulnerable to climate change. The resulting framework offers a roadmap for a world that not only survives climate change, but emerges more stable, more just, and more prosperous.

The book's opening chapter notes 10 key challenges that must be adopted as part of any successful path to mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience.

作者

蔡麗伶(LiLing Barricman)

In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.