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懸浮微粒汙染 北半球季風降雨少1成

2015年02月25日
摘譯自2014年10月3日ENS蘇格蘭,愛丁堡報導;何政儒編譯;張靜琪審校

最新研究指出,人類活動所排放的空氣污染物,導致過去50年來的全年季風降雨量逐漸減少。

愛丁堡大學的研究人員指出,20世紀下半葉,北半球夏季季風年降雨量就減少了10%。研究人員認為可能的原因是人類活動所排放的懸浮微粒,也就是氣溶膠(aerosol)。

科學家推測,人類排放的汙染物可能導致季風降雨量減少。(來源:-Reji)

氣溶膠反射地表熱 降雨量變少

大氣中若存有高濃度的氣溶膠,會使太陽照射地表的熱反射回太空,使得地表溫度降低、降雨量減少。

愛丁堡大學的研究人員發現,氣溶膠排放量從1950年代開始上升,最常見的來源是火力發電廠與汽車排放的廢氣。

這項研究報告的第一作者是愛丁堡大學地球科學學院的波爾森(Dr. Debbie Polson)。她表示:「這是首度有研究指出,自然界的氣候變動無法解釋過去50年來季風乾燥少雨的現象;也是首度有研究指出,人類活動在季節性的季風降雨中扮演重要的角色,影響了數十億人口的生計。」

夏季季風降雨量的改變,影響了數十億人的健康與農業活動,這些人大多居住在印度、東南亞和部分非洲地區。

氣溶膠全球流動 亞洲季風降雨最受衝擊

還有其他研究人員指出,非亞洲地區排放的氣溶膠,會使亞洲地區氣溶膠對季風降雨量的衝擊更加嚴重。

2011年,澳洲科學家研究發現,20世紀亞洲夏季季風受到亞洲與非亞洲地區人為排放的氣溶膠衝擊,更加凸顯了這個論點,證明了非亞洲地區的氣溶膠,將加深亞洲氣溶膠對全球季風降雨量的衝擊,特別是橫跨亞洲地區的季風降雨量。

不過今年9月,南亞地區的氣象似乎與愛丁堡科學家的研究有極大的牴觸,因雨風帶來的超大豪雨伴隨山洪爆發,在巴基斯坦造成128喪生,在印度則造成108人死亡。

南亞地區每年受到季風暴雨襲擊。許多災區難民會逃離洪水淹沒地區,湧入巴基斯坦其他地區和印度喀什米爾地區避難,當地政府指出,今年9月的洪災是最近10年來最嚴重的一次。

但愛丁堡大學研究員認為他們的研究有確切的證據顯示,人類活動確實造成全球季風降雨量的改變。

改變發電方式有助緩解

研究團隊精確計算出1951年到2005年北半球夏季季風的平均降雨量,並利用電腦氣候模型,分別計算出在同一時間內,氣溶膠與溫室氣體的排放量造成多少衝擊。

研究團隊同時把火山噴發與氣候變化等自然因素納入計算,以衡量人為活動對季風降雨量所造成的影響。

研究人員認為,一旦各國開始採用更乾淨且環保的發電方式,人為活動排放的氣溶膠濃度有機會在21世紀獲得改善。

這份愛丁堡大學的研究發表在《地球物理研究通訊》(Geophysical Research Letters),是一份由歐洲自然環境研究委員會(NERC)、歐洲研究委員會(ERC)和美國國家大氣科學中心共同贊助的期刊。

Monsoon Rains Decline as Humans Pollute the Atmosphere
EDINBURGH, Scotland, October 3, 2014 (ENS)

Emissions produced by human activities have caused annual monsoon rainfall to decline over the past 50 years, new research has found.

In the second half of the 20th century, the levels of rain recorded during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer monsoon fell by as much as 10 percent, according to researchers at the University of Edinburgh.

The scientists determined that emissions of tiny particles from human activities, known as anthropogenic aerosols, were the cause.

Levels of aerosol emissions have soared since the 1950s, with the most common sources being power stations and cars, the University of Edinburgh scientists found.

High levels of aerosols in the atmosphere cause heat from the Sun to be reflected back into space, lowering temperatures on the Earth’s surface and reducing rainfall.

Lead author Dr. Debbie Polson, of the University of Edinburgh’s School of GeoSciences, said, “This study shows for the first time that the drying of the monsoon over the past 50 years cannot be explained by natural climate variability and that human activity has played a significant role in altering the seasonal monsoon rainfall on which billions of people depend.”

Alterations to summer monsoon rainfall affect human health and agriculture for billions of people, mostly those living in India, South East Asia and parts of Africa.

Other researchers have concluded that aerosols emitted by human activities in non-Asian regions worsen the impact of Asian aerosols on the monsoon rains.

A 2011 study by Australian scientists, “The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon,” highlight the importance of the non-Asian aerosols in exacerbating the impact of Asian aerosols on global monsoon rainfall, particularly across Asia.

The Edinburgh research results appear to contradict the situation on the ground in South Asia in early September, where heavy monsoon rains and flash floods killed 128 people in Pakistan and 108 people in India.

The annual monsoon season hit the region hard. Fleeing inundated areas, people waded through rushing water in communities across Pakistan and in Indian-controlled areas of Kashmir. Authorities there report that the flooding was the worst in decades.

But University of Edinburgh scientists say their work provides clear evidence of human-induced rainfall change.

The team calculated the average summer monsoon rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere between 1951 and 2005. They used computer-based climate models to quantify the impact of increasing aerosol emissions and greenhouse gases over the same period.

They also took account of natural factors such as volcanic eruptions and climate variability to gauge the impact of human activity on the amount of monsoon rainfall.

Researchers say levels of human-caused aerosols are expected to decline during the 21st century as countries begin adopting cleaner methods of power generation.

The University of Edinburgh study is published in the journal “Geophysical Research Letters.” The work was funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council, European Research Council and National Centre for Atmospheric Science.

※ 全文及圖片詳見:ENS

※ 本文為教育部科學人文跨科際人才培育計畫(簡稱SHS計畫)所屬南區區域推動中心,舉辦「環境新聞編譯工作坊」之成果展現,特別感謝《科學人》編輯群協助審校。