研究：全球大型瀕危哺乳動物消失 最終原因是人口激增

Some of the world’s largest, most spectacular and unheralded mammals are silently slipping away – species like Tibetan wild yaks and Patagonia’s huemul, Bhutan’s takin and Vietnam’s saola. Even Africa’s three species of zebras and wildebeest have suffered massive reductions over the last several decades.

The reasons for these losses are more than disease and habitat fragmentation, deforestation or wildlife trade, according to researchers. Ultimately, the cause is rampant human population growth.

And unless human behavior changes in unprecedented ways, these scientists warn that future communities of these mammals will never resemble those of the recent past or even today.

The findings are based on a new study, “Disassembled food webs and messy projections: modern ungulate communities in the face of unabating human population growth,” published June 9 in the journal “Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution.”

Joel Berger, lead author of the study and a professor at Colorado State University, said that the time for action is now, and that touting past conservation achievements does little to better humanity’s future.

In this study, the scientists analyzed direct and indirect disruptions that lead to the changing roles of mammals in global ecosystems and noted how the nature of ecological interactions has changed and will do so, on an even larger scale, in the coming decades.

They looked at what has happened with the huemul in Patagonia, takin in Bhutan, wild horses in deserts, wolves and coyotes in North America, and the inevitability of change in big ecosystems as large carnivores are extirpated.

They said this is happening as the human population increases its footprint on land.

“Even in the remote reaches of the Himalayas, stray and feral dogs, a direct result of human intrusions, wreak havoc on wild and domestic species of high economic value and cultural importance,” said Wangchuk of the Bhutan Foundation.

Humans only recently colonized parts of the Himalayas, areas where ice has receded due to warming temperatures. Yet, the authors also point to human population change at a global scale. In 1830 when Vice-Admiral Robert Fitzroy captained his ship, the Beagle, through the Magellan Straits of South America, fewer than 1.2 billion people inhabited Earth. By Earth Day in 1970, there were more than 3.5 billion.

Today, only 50 years later the world’s population approaches eight billion. Livestock and humans now constitute a staggering 97 percent of the planet’s mammal biomass.

The research team explained that worldwide food webs have become irretrievably altered by humans, with little hope to reconstitute even recent past conditions or to put back the ecological functions once created by native species.

Feral pigs, for instance, exist today on every continent except Antarctica, and in 70 percent of the states in the United States. These animals disrupt fish, reptiles, birds and other small mammals, plants and soils.

In addition, climate change warms the oceans, which in turn foments marine algal blooms, reducing fishery catches. With less demand for fish, a consequent uptick in wildlife poaching on land occurs.

The scientists also documented how an appetite for fashion like cashmere increases imports to the west from Mongolia, India and China, resulting in economic incentives for desert pastoralists to produce more domestic goats in central Asia. These goats compete for food with native species and are in danger due to increasing numbers of dogs in these areas.

The dogs are not only predators but also carry diseases, which jeopardizes endangered species like snow leopards, kiang and Przewalksi’s gazelle.

Berger and the study authors suggest that despite the grim findings, all is not yet lost.

Prospects for ecological integrity and the conservation of unheralded species improve greatly toward the world’s edges where the planet’s cold-adapted species remain important to the human spirit and we still have time to save what we have.

The world has remarkable protected areas including Serengeti and Kruger National Park in Africa, Yellowstone and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park & Preserve in North America, Madidi National Park in Bolivia, the Patagonia Ice Fields of Chile and Argentina, the Chang Tang Nature Reserve in China, and Northeast Greenland National Park, the world’s largest national park.

And although food webs with large mammals will be different from those of the past and operate differently today, there are options to shape the future.

“It is not too late and we simply do not have the luxury of time to mourn what we have lost,” said Lambert. “We need to use our ecological grief to implement action and honor the exceptional biodiversity that remains. This can be done by protecting large tracts of the planet’s wild places.”