經濟復甦 全球碳排量也跟著增加 | 台灣環境資訊協會-環境資訊中心

經濟復甦 全球碳排量也跟著增加

2010年11月26日
摘譯自2010年11月22日ENS英國,愛塞特報導;洪美惠編譯;蔡麗伶審校

在中國的東北遼寧省的燃煤電廠。圖片來自:中國國電公司(China Guodian Corp.)。根據愛塞特大學22日發表在《自然地球科學》期刊的報告表示,2010年全球溫室氣體二氧化碳排放量可能到達歷史新高。2009年因為全球金融危機而減少的排放量,可能會被2010年所增加的化石燃料燃燒量而抵消。

這項研究是「全球碳計畫」(Global Carbon Project)年度更新碳收支的一部分。參與研究的有:東英格蘭大學(UEA)、澳洲聯邦科學暨工業研究組織(CSIRO)等機構。

儘管2009年全世界受到金融危機衝擊,科學家們算出,全球燃燒化石燃料產生的二氧化碳排放量,只低於2008年1.3%。與去年預測的降幅相比,只減少不到一半。

全球金融危機影響到西方經濟體,使得二氧化碳排放量大幅減低。英國在2009年的排放量比2008年降低了8.6%,而美國、日本、法國、德國和其他大多數工業國家也有類似現象。

儘管出現金融危機,但新興經濟體的經濟表現強勁,他們的二氧化碳排放量大幅增加,例如,中國的排放量上升8%,印度則增加6.2%。

此研究的主要作者Pierre Friedlingstein教授說,「2009年二氧化碳排放量減少不到一年前預估值的一半,這是因為世界GDP低於預期的原故。世界GDP碳強度,是每單位GDP釋放的二氧化碳排放量,在2009年只改善了0.7%,遠低於每年1.7%的長期平均值。」他說。

該研究推論,如果全球經濟如預期地增長,2010年全球化石燃料排放量將增加超過3%,接近2000年至2008年所觀察到的高成長率。

「然而,還是有一些好消息,」此研究的共同作者,全球碳計劃執行董事Pep Canadell說。「我們發現,和90年代的過去10年相比,因毀林行為而產生的全球排放量已經降低,降幅高過25%,佔了全體人類活動大約1/10的排放。」研究發現,此二氧化碳排放量下降是由於減少熱帶森林砍伐所致。

2002年林地野火摧毀加州的聖費利佩山谷野生動物區(San Felipe Valley Wildlife Area ) ,美國森林(American Forests)協助在此種植5萬株樹木。圖片來自:美國森林。 「這是首次,因為溫帶地區擴大森林面積彌補了森林砍伐造成的排放量,出現熱帶以外的地方有小量二氧化碳的淨匯集(small net sink of CO2)。」此研究的共同作者,來自東英格蘭大學和英國南極勘測(British Antarctic Survey)小組的Corinne Le Quere教授說。「我們可以在熱帶以外的森林地區,看到第一個淨二氧化碳封存的跡象。」她說。

此報告另一位共同作者,CSIRO的Michael Raupach博士表示,儘管估計碳排放量具有一些不確定性,氣候科學家們都同意,人為引起氣候變化,主要歸因於人類活動產生二氧化碳。

「GDP的碳強度(carbon intensity),即每產生1美元的財富而造成的排放量,在2009年僅改善了0.7%,我們認為這要歸因於新興經濟體依賴高碳排的煤炭。」他說。「在全球和新興經濟體中,化石燃料中的煤炭,在去年所產生的排放量持續增加。隨著全球經濟復甦,2010年全球GDP預計增長4.8%。」

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Climb as Economy Recovers
EXETER, UK, November 22, 2010 (ENS)

Global emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are likely to reach record levels in 2010, according to research led by the University of Exeter, published today in the journal "Nature Geoscience." The 2009 drop in emissions due to the global financial crisis will be more than offset by renewed growth in fossil fuel burning in 2010.

The study, which also involved the University of East Anglia, Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO, and other institutions, is part of the annual carbon budget update by the Global Carbon Project.

Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels in 2009 were only 1.3 percent below the record 2008 figures, despite the financial crisis that hit the world last year, the scientists calculated. This is less than half the reduction predicted a year ago.

The global financial crisis affected western economies, leading to large reductions in CO2 emissions. Emissions in the United Kingdom were 8.6 percent lower in 2009 than in 2008. Similar figures apply to the United States, Japan, France, Germany, and most other industrialized nations.

But the economic performance of emerging economies was strong despite the financial crisis, and they recorded substantial increases in CO2 emissions - China's emissions rose eight percent, for instance, and India's rose 6.2 percent.

Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, lead author of the study, said, "The 2009 drop in CO2 emissions is less than half that anticipated a year ago. This is because the drop in world Gross Domestic Product was less than anticipated."

"And the carbon intensity of world GDP, which is the amount of CO2 released per unit of GDP, improved by only 0.7 percent in 2009 - well below its long-term average of 1.7 percent per year," he said.

The study projects that if the global economy grows as expected, global fossil fuel emissions will increase by more than three percent in 2010, approaching the high emissions growth rates observed through 2000 to 2008.

"There is some good news, however," says Dr. Pep Canadell of CSIRO, executive director of the Global Carbon Project and a co-author to the study.

"We found global emissions from deforestation have decreased through the last decade by more than 25 percent compared to the 1990s and account now for about a tenth of the emissions from all human activity."

This decrease is due to reduced CO2 emissions from tropical deforestation, the study found.

"For the first time, forest expansion in temperate latitudes has overcompensated deforestation emissions and caused a small net sink of CO2 outside the tropics," says Professor Corinne Le Quere, from the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey, and co-author of the study.

"We could be seeing the first signs of net CO2 sequestration in the forest sector outside the tropics," she said.

Another co-author of the paper, CSIRO's Dr. Michael Raupach, said that despite the estimates of carbon emissions having some uncertainties, climate scientists agree that CO2 generated by human activity is the main contributor to human-induced climate change.

"The carbon intensity of world Gross Domestic Product, that is the amount of emissions emitted to produce one dollar of wealth, improved by only 0.7 percent in 2009, and we attribute this to emerging economies that are reliant on coal producing a higher share of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions," he said.

"Both globally and for emerging economies, the fraction of fossil fuel emissions from coal continued to increase last year," said Dr. Raupach. "The world GDP is projected to increase by 4.8 percent in 2010 as the global economy recovers."

全文及圖片詳見:ENS報導

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