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最新的鮭魚計劃正走向破滅

2000年09月13日
ENS報導;楊璧如 編譯;吳海音 審校

鮭魚等不及族群就下降了

聯邦政府於7月27日發布令人久候的拯救蛇河及哥倫比亞河瀕臨絕種鮭魚的計劃。正如預期,他們並沒有按照多數科學家向國會的建議,為了防止蛇河中的鮭魚滅絕,採取可能的必要措施--拆除四個在東華盛頓的聯邦水壩。

理由十分明顯,贊成將這個可供應此區5﹪電力之水壩移除的人,尚未達政治上的多數。共和黨總統提名人小布希直接表示反對拆除水壩,並且成功的將此納入奧瑞崗及華盛頓這兩個關鍵州之政治議題中。

在此議題中,高爾的陣營選擇和柯林頓在1992年用來平息環保人士和勞工不滿一樣的策略--在大選後召開一次會議。1993年,柯林頓成功的在西北森林計劃的斑點梟與古老森林議題中獲得協議。

現在,高爾希望如果他勝選後能依樣畫葫蘆。如果他敗選了,制定柯林頓政府之鮭魚計劃的聯邦機構,將讓原住民和保育人士這批對手有機會依瀕臨絕種生物法案、清水法案及幾個印地安條款,提出強力的訴訟。

這個訴訟將會很嚴重,因為當局所提出的諸多動作,即使全盤實施,可能也無心拯救蛇河中的魚。自鮭魚被列為瀕臨絕種生物,到之前幾個企圖防止鮭魚數量降低之計畫的失敗,讓聯邦法官在1995年命令聯邦政府草擬出現在的計劃。雖然這個計劃比之前的計劃還要理想,但因為沒有強制取締的機制,縱使能完全執行,也還是會產生許多問題。

當局的計劃關鍵在於,列名在瀕臨絕種生物法案之12品系的鮭魚中,只有四個品系須經由蛇河水壩遷移。所以法案將可立時幫助所有鮭魚的行動列入優先考量。

這包括了復育哥倫比亞河在太平洋出海口46哩範圍內的棲地。但這項改善措施必須和源自於波特蘭港大型疏浚計劃中出海口的疏浚規劃一起評估。而疏浚計劃在今年稍早被證實已獲得聯邦政府的認可。所以對此出海口地區最多也只能緩和破壞,而無法進行棲地復育。

另一方面,則是有關蛇河及哥倫比亞河的水流。這個草案要求由華盛頓、愛達荷、蒙大拿及加拿大的水庫釋放更多的水,讓鮭魚能較快游回大海。但這個選擇並不受引水灌溉皆需仰賴水庫供水的農人、行船者及社區的歡迎。這也或許是柯林頓政府不願說明到底鮭魚需要多少水量的原因。取而代之的是建議成立一個新的部門,向願意賣水的人買水。但這個計劃如果失敗的話,政府並沒有其他的備案。

這個草案最具規模的部分,是在16條河流的流域中復育鮭魚產卵地的大型計劃。改進鮭魚產卵的棲地是很重要的,但是在愛達荷州,大部分鮭魚的棲地已經在野外,而且保持得不錯,所以真正的問題還是在於如何讓鮭魚能通過在蛇河和哥倫比亞河的聯邦水壩。

沒有任何理由說明這個情形會比鮭魚河中的Middle Fork來得好。在鮭魚河地區,聯邦和州政府已經禁止家畜、養殖魚場及過多的漁夫進入。但在過去五年中,已有兩年沒有鮭魚迴流至Middle Fork。縱使是科學家覺得近二十年來鮭魚狀況最佳的今年,鮭魚迴流的數量還是沒有大幅的回升,僅足夠維持其保持族群的延續。

未來的決策

當局的計劃中並沒有全然放棄拆除四個蛇河的水壩。在五年內,若蛇河中鮭魚的數量無法提昇10﹪以上的話,政府將考慮破壞水壩。如果在八年內,族群的成長率下降0.5﹪以上的話,他們將要求改變聯邦供水系統,極可能執行水壩的拆除工作。

但是由於拆除水壩的機會不大,導致這個計劃在生物學及法令上都有著嚴重的缺失。Save Our Salmon 執行長Pat Ford表示:「這個計劃令我們十分失望,在水壩拆除上互踢皮球還在其次,最重要的是,計劃中缺乏任何刑罰或其他機制來強制執行。」

當局鮭魚負責人George Frampton私底下向保育人士和部落領袖透露,他們在選後將會看到較強勢的最終計劃。但有些科學家的研究計劃顯示,野生的 spring chinook salmon將在2017年滅絕,大約是在計劃時間表中最早可能將水庫移除的時候。但兩陣營中沒有人相信這點。

Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation Board of Trustees的主席Antone Minthorn說:「我將會回去向我們的族人說,白宮為了要保留四個聯邦水壩而決定讓蛇河的鮭魚滅亡。」「我會告訴他們,顯然我們必須要上法院去拯救鮭魚。」

在年底最後計劃定案前,將無法進行任何訴訟。這表示,當十一月選民決定小布希的贊成水壩立場,或是高爾未來將召開的會議後,下一個有關於鮭魚的決定才會產生。

歷經多年的訴訟,而未來將面對更多的計劃,看來在人們願意做出更有力的承諾前,鮭魚只能自求多福了。

The latest salmon plan heads toward a train wreck

Federal officials released on July 27 their long-awaited plan for saving 12 stocks of endangered salmon in the Snake and Columbia rivers. As expected, they stopped short of recommending to Congress what the majority of scientists say may be necessary to prevent Snake River salmon from going extinct - breaching four federal dams in eastern Washington (HCN, 12/20/99).

The reason was obvious: There still is not a political majority in the region in favor of removing the Army Corps of Engineers-operated dams, which provide 5 percent of the region's electricity. Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush flatly opposes breaching and has succeeded in making it a major political issue in the key states of Oregon and Washington.

Wedged in the middle of the issue, the Gore campaign has chosen the same strategy Bill Clinton used to appease both environmentalists and labor in the region in 1992 - call for a summit after the election. In 1993, Clinton successfully negotiated a compromise on the spotted owl-ancient forest issue with his Northwest Forest Plan.

Now Gore hopes he will be able to do the same, if he wins. If he loses, then the conflicting positions of the federal agencies who developed the Clinton salmon plan will leave opponents - namely the tribes and conservationists - an apparently strong court case under the Endangered Species Act, the Clean Water Act and several Indian treaties.

Their case will be strong because, even if implemented, the long list of actions proposed by the administration likely won't save Snake River fish. These runs were the first to be listed under the Endangered Species Act, and the failure of previous plans to stop their steep decline is the reason a federal judge ordered the federal government, in 1995, to draw up the current plan. The new plan is stronger than past editions, but many question whether it can be fully implemented, since it lacks regulatory teeth.

The administration's plan hinges on the logic that only four of the 12 stocks of salmon listed under the Endangered Species Act must migrate through the Snake River dams. So it prioritizes immediate actions that help all the salmon.

That includes such things as restoring habitat in the 46-mile stretch of Columbia River estuary, where it meets the Pacific Ocean. But such improvements must be weighed against the further degradation of the estuary that will result from a massive new dredging program for the Port of Portland. That project received the federal government's stamp of approval earlier this year, so the best that can happen for the estuary is mitigation, not restoratio

Then there is the matter of water flows in the Snake and Columbia rivers. The draft plan for salmon calls for additional water releases from reservoirs in Washington, Idaho, Montana and Canada to push the salmon more quickly oceanward. This alternative is unpopular with irrigation farmers, boaters and communities that depend on full reservoirs, which is probably why the Clinton administration did not specify how much water salmon need. Instead, it proposed to create a new agency to buy water from willing sellers. There is no backup plan should the voluntary program fail.

The most ambitious part of the plan is a massive program to repair the watersheds where salmon spawn, beginning with 16 targeted river basins. Improving spawning habitat is important, but most of Idaho's habitat is in wilderness, so it's already in pretty good shape. The real problem remains getting the salmon through the gantlet of federal dams on the Snake and Columbia rivers.

No place illustrates this better than the Middle Fork of the Salmon River. Federal and state managers have kept cattle, hatchery fish and excessive numbers of fishermen out of the area. Yet in two of the last five years, no salmon have returned to the Middle Fork. Even this year, in what biologists are calling the best conditions salmon have had in two decades, the number of returning salmon fall short of recovery, just barely high enough to sustain the population.

More decisions ahead
The administration's plan doesn't entirely discard the option of dismantling the four Snake River dams. If wild salmon numbers in the Snake River don't rise by 10 percent in five years, the feds will review the plan and reconsider breaching. If after eight years the population growth rate falls by as much as 0.5 percent or more, they must require changes in the federal hydrosystem, most likely dam breaching.

But the dim and distant prospect of dam breaching leaves the plan flawed, biologically and legally. As Pat Ford, executive director of Save Our Salmon, says, "This plan disappoints us, not so much because it punts on dam breaching, but because it lacks any penalties or other mechanisms to compel action on anything else."

Privately, the administration's point man on salmon, George Frampton, has told conservationists and tribal leaders that they will see a stronger final plan after the election. But with some scientific projections showing wild spring chinook salmon going extinct in 2017 - about the earliest the dams would physically come out under the plan's schedule - neither group bought that message.

"Today I will go home to my people and tell them that the White House has decided that Snake River salmon should go extinct in order to save four federal dams," said Antone Minthorn, chairman of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation Board of Trustees. "I will tell them that it appears we must go to court to save salmon."

No lawsuits can be brought until a final plan is completed at the end of the year. That means the next decision on salmon will come in November, when voters decide between Bush's pro-dam position or Gore's future summit.
With years of court battles and still more plans stretching out in the future, it will be up to the salmon themselves to hold on until the region is ready to make a stronger commitment.

全文及圖示詳見: http://www.hcn.org/servlets/hcn.Article?article_id=5990

讀者投書原文:http://news.ngo.org.tw/reply/reply-00091401.htm
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