倫敦政經學院氣候經濟學專家史登爵士表示，倘若哥本哈根峰會能達成強而有力的政治協議，並付諸實行；人類將有一半的機會可阻止升溫超過2℃以上的危險境界。但他同時也提到，即使加總目前各國所提出最宏大的減量目標，總減碳量離上述目標仍相距甚遠。
身為前財政部長的這位英國經濟學家表示，要避免氣溫升高2℃以上，全世界必須停止增加並逐漸減少溫室氣體排放量，從2010年約470億噸二氧化碳當量降低為2020的440億噸。至2050年更須比200億噸少許多。
史登於上周三(2日)表示，「如果將各國曾表示過的最大減排量加總起來，離2020年的減量目標還差了約20億噸。」
史登的言論是根據一份科學經濟評估報告，報告估算地球若要避免升溫2℃的情境下，全球年均碳排放的可能進展。這份報告是由他主持的「氣候變遷經濟政策中心」執行的。
報告共同作者鮑文(Alex Bowen)說，「如果各國採用有效政策，並利用如能源效率這類事半功倍的措施，2020年全球的年排放量降低到44億噸甚或更少，似乎是完全可能的。」不過他也提到，「短期內不彰或是延遲的減量行動，會使2020年後需要進行更大幅度的削減；也可能會大幅增加經濟代價，以達成控制升溫2℃的目標，且該目標可能無法達成。」
史登建議，「到2015年，富國應提供約500億美元，相當於0.1%GDP的金額，以幫助開發中國家。此數目遠超過現有的開發援助承諾。」
The world has a "50-50 chance" of avoiding global warming of more than two degrees Celsius, the threshold for dangerous climate change, if a strong political agreement can be reached at the United Nations conference in Copenhagen, and then implemented, says Lord Nicholas Stern, an economics and climate expert at the London School of Economics and Political Science. But, he says, a total of governments' most ambitious emissions reduction targets stated so far still fall short of that goal.
The British economist and former secretary of the treasury said, "To do this we need to halt and reverse the growth of annual emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, reducing them from about 47 billion tonnes in 2010 to about 44 billion tonnes in 2020, and decreasing to much less than 20 billion tonnes in 2050."
"If you add up the most ambitious of the intentions to reduce emissions that have been expressed so far, they are, if delivered, around two billion tonnes higher than the overall 2020 goal," Lord Stern said Wednesday.
Stern is basing his sense of the situation on a scientific and economic assessment of the range of paths for global annual emissions that are consistent with a 50 percent chance of avoiding a rise of more than two degrees Celsius. The analysis was conducted at the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, which he chairs.
Assessment co-author Dr. Alex Bowen said, "It appears entirely feasible to lower global annual emissions to 44 billion tonnes or below by 2020 if effective policies are introduced now and countries take advantage of low-hanging fruit such as energy efficiency measures."
"However," said Bowen, "weak or delayed action to reduce emissions in the near term would require much stronger cuts after 2020, which would be likely to increase significantly the economic costs of meeting a 2°C target, and might make it impossible."
"The rich countries should find US$50 billion, or about 0.1 percent of their gross domestic product, a year by 2015 to help the developing countries, over and above existing commitments on development aid," Stern advised.
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