聯合國:世界人口將在2100年達到100億 | 環境資訊中心
國際新聞

聯合國:世界人口將在2100年達到100億

2011年05月13日
摘譯自2011年5月4日ENS美國,紐約報導;張昕瑜編譯;蔡麗伶審校

尼日為高生育率國家,婦女在排隊等待領取食物。圖片來自:Feeding the Nations。根據聯合國在3日所公佈的數據,如果目前的生育率仍持續維持,在西元2050年之前,世界人口將激增超過90億。而到了本世紀末,則將達到101億。

目前世界人口將近70億,每一秒都在增加中。預計2011年底人口將超過70億。

現在,42%的人口分布於低生育率國家。低生育率是指以平均來看,這些國家的婦女所生的小孩數量不足,婦女人數無法被已達生育年齡的女兒人數所替代。

另外40%的人口生活在中等生育率國家。平均每一位婦女生育1至1.5個女兒。其餘18%人口生活在高生育率國家。每位女性平均擁有1.5個以上的女兒。

根據聯合國數據顯示,大部分增加的人口數量將來自高生育率國家,主要是位於非洲撒哈拉以南,以及位於亞洲、大洋洲和拉丁美洲的一些國家。

高生育率國家大多集中在非洲 ,55個非洲國家中的39個國家為高生育率。 但仍有 9個國家在亞洲,6個在大洋洲以及4個在拉丁美洲。

依據人口規模和數據顯示,3/4的人口生活在中生育率國家,包含印度、美國、印亞、孟加拉、墨西哥和埃及。

而低生育率國家,則包含除了冰島和愛爾蘭之外的歐洲國家,51個亞洲國家中的19個,39個美洲國家中的14個,2個非洲國家--模里西斯和突尼西斯,以及位於大西洋的澳洲。

中國、巴西、俄羅斯聯邦、日本、越南、德國、伊朗、泰國和法國等國家,若以人口規模來看,75%的人口生活在低生育率國家。

由聯合國經濟及社會事務部人口司所編撰的「2010年世界人口展望修訂」顯示,任何一個小的生育率變化,都可能導致全球人口大規模且長期的差異。

根據中期預測,2023年世界人口應該超過80億,2041年超過90億,而到了2081年後,將超過100億。

據聯合國機構表示,生育率小幅度提高,即意味著全球人口在2100年將達到158億;而小幅度的減低最終將導致全球人口將在世紀末下降至62億。

聯合國經濟及社會事務部人口司人口司主任Hania  Zlotnik。圖片來自:聯合國。人口司主任Hania  Zlotnik,在紐約聯合國總部所舉行的的記者會上告訴記者,許多國家的人口正在持續老化,因為這些國家的生育率同時也在下降中。

她表示,屬於低生育率或中等生育率的國家,包含中國、俄羅斯和許多歐洲國家,也將在本世紀末達到高峰。

當被問及被預期和日本和俄羅斯聯邦一樣人口數量將會下降的國家,Zlotnik說,她的辦公室正在密切關注中國的人口。該國人口將會在2020年開始下降,而被印度超越。

不論屬於哪一類生育率的國家,人類的預期壽命都將會延長,尤其許多在撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲國家,因為有了更好的HIV和愛滋病治療,可以降低早期死亡。

全球的預期壽命,預計在2095年至2100年間,從68歲增加到81歲。

Zlotnik解釋,雖然世界不會因為增加數十億人口而有所影響,但是大部分增加的人口都生活在最貧窮的國家。

高生育率的國家往往受到領土小、貧窮和衝突等因素所折磨。 Zlotnik表示,聯合國擔心,如果這些國家的生育率沒有如預期般下降,將會發生糧食供應和負擔能力等嚴重的問題。

今年4月,聯合國糧食和農業組織的糧食價格指數,在8個月價格連續暴漲之後,第一次下降。

2011年3月,該指數平均為230點,從2月份的高點下降了2.9%,但仍然比去年3月高了37%。

糧食和農業組織貿易與市場部主任David Hallam表示:「本月總體指數的減少,為過去8個月的穩定增加,帶來了紓緩的空間。不過,這是否為一個逆轉的趨勢還言之過早。」

Hallam表示:「低庫存的存貨標準、中東和北非事件對油價的影響,以及日本災害破壞的作用,在未來幾個月內,將會造成持續的不確定性與價格波動。」

UN: Global Population to Top 10 Billion by 2100
NEW YORK, New York, May 4, 2011 (ENS)

The world's population will surge past nine billion before 2050 and reach 10.1 billion by the end of the century if current fertility rates continue, according to United Nations figures released Tuesday.

Today's world population is currently close to seven billion, increasing by the second, and is projected to surpass seven billion towards the end of this year.

Today, 42 percent of the world's population lives in low-fertility countries, that is, countries where women are not having enough children to ensure that, on average, each woman is replaced by a daughter who survives to the age of procreation.

Another 40 percent lives in intermediate-fertility countries where each woman is having, on average, between 1 and 1.5 daughters, and the remaining 18 percent lives in high-fertility countries where the average woman has more than 1.5 daughters.

Most of the increase will come from high fertility countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa but also in some nations in Asia, Oceania and Latin America, the UN data shows.

High-fertility countries are mostly concentrated in Africa - 39 out of the 55 countries in the continent have high fertility - but there are also nine in Asia, six in Oceania and four in Latin America.

Three-quarters of the population living in the intermediate-fertility countries is located in India, the United States, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico and Egypt, in order of population size, the data shows.

Low-fertility countries include all countries in Europe except Iceland and Ireland, 19 out of the 51 in Asia, 14 out of the 39 in the Americas, two in Africa, Mauritius and Tunisia, and one in Oceania, Australia.

China, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Japan, Viet Nam, Germany, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand and France, in order of population size, account for 75 percent of the population living in low-fertility countries.

Prepared by the Population Division at the UN's Department of Economic and Social Affairs, "The 2010 Revision of World Population Prospects" shows that a small variation in fertility could lead to major long-term differences in the size of the global population.

Based on the medium projection, the number of people in the world should pass eight billion in 2023, nine billion by 2041 and then 10 billion at some point after 2081.

But a small increase in fertility could mean a global population of as much as 15.8 billion by 2100, while a small decrease could result in an eventual overall decline in population to 6.2 billion by the end of the century, according to the UN agency.

Hania Zlotnik, director of the Population Division, told journalists at a news conference at UN Headquarters in New York that the populations of many countries are ageing and will continue to do so as their fertility rates decline.

The population of countries classed as low-fertility or intermediate-fertility - including China, Russia and many countries in Europe - would thus peak well before the end of the century, she said.

Asked whether Japan and the Russian Federation, where the populations are forecast to decline, would be joined by other countries, Zlotnik said her office is paying attention to China's population, which would start declining in the 2020s, to be surpassed by that of India.

Life expectancy is expected to rise across all categories of countries, particularly as better treatment for HIV/AIDS cuts early deaths in many sub-Saharan African countries, Zlotnik said.

Global life expectancy is projected to increase from 68 years to 81 by the years 2095 to 2100.
While the world has not collapsed under the billions of new people, Zlotnik explained, most of the additions have taken place in the poorest countries.

High-fertility countries tend to be small, poor and racked by conflict, and Zlotnik said the UN is concerned that if they do not achieve their projected fertility reductions, they will have serious problems of food availability and affordability.

In April, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index dropped for the first time after eight months of continuous price spikes.

The Index averaged 230 points in March 2011, down 2.9 percent from its peak in February, but still 37 percent above March of last year.

"The decrease in the overall index this month brings some welcome respite from the steady increases seen over the last eight months," said David Hallam, director of FAO's Trade and Market Division. "But it would be premature to conclude that this is a reversal of the upward trend."

"Low stock levels, the implications for oil prices of events in the Middle East and North Africa and the effects of the destruction in Japan," said Hallam, "all make for continuing uncertainty and price volatility over the coming months."

全文及圖片詳見:ENS報導

作者

蔡麗伶(LiLing Barricman)

In my healing journey and learning to attain the breath awareness, I become aware of the reality that all the creatures of the world are breathing the same breath. Take action, here and now. From my physical being to the every corner of this out of balance's planet.